Technical analysis for 19th January 2026
FTSE100 Bias
- BIAS: BULLISH CONTINUATION (LEADER, HEALTHY PAUSE)
- Chart read:
- Price remains inside a rising daily channel
- Still above EMA 25 & EMA 200
- Recent candle shows a pullback into mid-channel, not a breakdown
- RSI holding above 60 → bullish momentum intact
- What it means:
- This looks like trend digestion, not distribution
- Buyers still control structure
- Bias today:
- Buy dips / continuation bias
- Caution only if price accepts below ~10,150–10,180 (channel + EMA zone)
S&P500 Bias
- BIAS: WEAK BULLISH → NEUTRAL (GLOBAL RISK CHECK)
- Chart read:
- Price has slipped toward lower channel support
- Trading near S3 pivot zone
- RSI at ~45 → momentum softening
- EMA 25 flat → trend losing acceleration
- What it means:
- S&P is the weakest of the three
- Market is in a support test phase, not a breakout phase
- Bias today:
- Neutral-to-bullish at support
- Needs a bounce back above ~6,950 to restore risk-on
- Daily close below ~6,880 flips tone bearish
DAX40 Bias
- BIAS: NEUTRAL-BULLISH (PAUSE INSIDE UPTREND)
- Chart read:
- Still inside a rising channel
- Last candle rejected near lower mid-channel
- EMA 200 still well below → higher timeframe trend intact
- RSI has cooled toward 55 → momentum reset, not bearish
- What it means:
- DAX is consolidating, not reversing
- Needs a push back above the 25,300–25,350 zone to re-accelerate
- Bias today:
- Bullish if supported
- Range / dip-buying environment
- Bearish only on daily close below ~25,050
FTSE100 Roadmap
- Below 10,240:
- Rallies are sells
- At 10,050–10,020:
- Watch for buyers to step in
- Below 10,020:
- Daily trend weakens → deeper pullback risk
FTSE100 Likely Path
- Early: Attempted bounce into 10,230–10,260
- Mid-session: Rejection → test of 10,150
- Later: Either
- Base & bounce from 10,050–10,020
- Or acceptance lower → continuation pullback
Asian markets fell on Monday after Donald Trump threatened to slap extra tariffs on eight European countries until the United States is allowed to buy Greenland.
US markets are closed today for Martin Luther King day, which means it will mostly be up to Europe today to digest and navigate the Trump Tariff war declaration once again. Deja Vu! The 10250 level held as resistance on Friday and overnight we saw a test of 10150 and a small bounce and it will be short the rallies really initially today.
10149 is the key fib support also to start with, and a break of this will then see a slide down to the next daily support at 10097 with 10057 below that. If we do see 10097 then it's a worth a long here for possible dead cat bounce as well. We are however just on the bottom of the 10d Raff channel at the 10164 level (20d Raff is 10125) to lend some weight to this area. The EU will also be keen to demonstrate some strength and is already mooting retaliatory tariffs on US exports.
Either way it will be an interesting day and we may well see the usual tariff pattern play out - drop initially, then in the next few weeks we get another climb and the bullish run continues. It's certainly going to be the hot topic of conversation at the Davos summit this week! They might have less time for apres ski...........
If the bulls do start the day off with some strength then we may see a climb to test the red 30m coral at the 10225 area, and that would also be a back test of the S1 level for today. Ergo it would be a good shorting area as well. The 2h chart also remains bearish (as it was on Friday) and has Hull MA resistance at 10248 today. Ideally today we climb from 10150 again, test 10225 then drop again and possibly get as low as 10100. Either way do stay cautious today while it all plays out.
With the US closed, we will see a muted S&P500 but a possible climb to the 6942 pivot level then back down to 6875 would make sense. It may well try and close the gap with Friday's close, which is at the same area as this pivot.
The DAX40 is really weak to start with, having broken below S3 at 25083. As such we may well see a rise to backtest that before some more downside.
Good luck today.
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