Technical analysis for 18th February 2026
FTSE100 Bias
- Bias: Bullish (trend continuation)
- Structure
- Still trading inside the rising channel.
- Higher highs & higher lows intact.
- Strong bullish close pushing back toward channel highs.
- MA position
- Price above 10 / 25 / 200 EMA → fully aligned bullish.
- Pivot reaction
- Holding above the daily pivot → intraday support.
- Room toward R1 → R2.
- RSI
- Firm and rising → momentum supported (not yet extreme).
- Key levels
- Support: 10,530 → 10,474 → 10,416
- Resistance: 10,617 → 10,673 → 10,760
- Playbook
- Buy dips into pivot / EMA cluster.
- Acceptance above R1 → trend expansion.
S&P500 Bias
- Bias: Bearish (rallies are sells)
- Structure
- Still inside the falling channel.
- Series of lower highs intact.
- Latest bounce = corrective, not a reversal.
- MA position
- Price below the 10 & 25 EMA → bearish control.
- EMAs sloping down.
- Pivot reaction
- Trading around pivot but under bearish channel resistance.
- RSI
- Recovering from oversold → allows short-term bounce, not trend change.
- Key levels
- Resistance: 6,874 → 6,925 → 6,984
- Support: 6,800 → 6,741 → 6,708
- Playbook
- Sell rallies into EMA / R1 / channel top.
- Breakdown through S1 → continuation lower.
DAX40 Bias
- Bias: Bullish (reclaim after pullback)
- Structure
- Reclaimed the mid-channel after the prior bearish breakdown.
- Bullish continuation candle today.
- MA position
- Price back above the EMA cluster → momentum shift up.
- Pivot reaction
- Strong move back above pivot → buyers in control.
- RSI
- Turning up from neutral → supports upside continuation.
- Key levels
- Support: 24,914 → 24,768 → 24,534
- Resistance: 25,143 → 25,288 → 25,520
- Playbook
- Dips into pivot = buy zone.
- Acceptance above R1 opens trend leg toward channel high.
Most Likely Path Today
- Early dip gets bought at/above pivot
- Grind higher toward 10,617 → 10,673
Trend day behaviour unless pivot is lost.
If the bulls can defend the 10530 daily pivot this morning then we should be on track for some further upside towards the 10640 daily resistance level that we have had pencilled in for this week. They will be keen to keep the momentum going following yesterdays rise. Initial resistance however is at the key fib and R1 level at the 10610-20 area so look for a dip off this to then get bought up this morning. If we get a 30m close below the 10530 pivot though then the bias will cool and the bears will likely try and capitalise.
We have just had inflation figures out that show inflation cooled in January and following hot on the heals of yesterdays poor employment data is likely to lend weight to a rate cut next month. That should help the FTSE100 bulls drive the index higher in anticipation.
The 2h chart is now firmly locked in as bullish with the 10510 level as support, and rising steadily - that may well coincide with the 10530 later.
If the bears were to break it though then the next major support is at the 10475 are where we have S1, the key fib and the 30m 200ema.
Generally it's looking quite bullish still for the FTSE100 and DAX40, with both the 2h charts bullish and daily Raff channels heading up. The weaker one is the S&P500, but the bulls will be looking to defend any dip down to the 6810 area which is the Hull MA support on the 2h chart. The daily chart is bearish however with the 25ema as resistance at 6892 - and we have R1 here - so this level is crucial today. The bulls will need to break above that if they are going to conquer the bearish bias.
Good luck today.
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