Technical analysis for 14th November 2025
FTSE100 Bias
- Overall Bias: Mildly Bearish → Turning Neutral
- Yesterday produced a large bearish daily candle, rejecting the upper channel line and closing back below 9800
- The 30-min chart shows compression, with price stuck under the 200 EMA and losing its short-term bullish structure.
- Momentum has cooled, and we are now pulling back inside the rising daily channel.
- This is a market cooling off, not yet reversing structurally, but favouring sell-the-rip rather than buy-the-dip until support confirms.
S&P500 Bias
- Bias: Bullish Trend with Consolidation Likely
- Rationale & Key Observations:
- Technical indicators (moving averages, MACD) still favour the upside; the trend remains intact across multiple time-frames.
- Price has extended significantly; higher valuations and earnings expectations are baked in, which raises caution around further rapid gains.
- Macro context: strong US earnings, favourable liquidity environment, but risk of rotation and policy shifts remains.
- Interpretation:
- With support intact, bias is buy-on-dips, not aggressive breakout chasing.
- Upside remains viable, but expect potential consolidation or pullback rather than a straight thrust higher.
DAX40 Bias
- Bias: Mildly Bullish with Early Pullback Risk
- Rationale & Key Observations:
- Technical indicators show positive alignment: moving averages in sequence, breadth improving across EU equities markets.
- The index remains within an upward trend channel and recently tested the upper range — this confirms trend strength but also signals potential consolidation.
- The broader context: resilient German large-caps, favourable export mix and lower valuation compared to US peers.
- Interpretation:
- The path of least resistance is still upwards so long as support holds; thus bias remains buy-on-dips.
- However, given momentum is stretched and price near upper trend boundary, expect a possible pause or retracement before next leg up.
That all got pretty bearish yesterday as the US government shut down ended and market fears materialised. Profit taking after the all time highs as well as uncertainty over the FED future rate plans all weighed on markets. Even bitcoin is back below $100k!
For today we may well see some consolidation and the short term sentiment is sell the rallies/sell the rip. I am looking at a potential rose towards the 9805 daily pivot level and the 9820 200ema above that. As such 9820 may well cap any rises today though if we break above that it will be worth a breakout long trade to target the 9872 R1 and key fib level.
The S&P500 closed the gap from last week at 6740on that drop yesterday and again we may well now see some consolidation. It feels like this is more of a pull back in the overall bullish trend rather than a reversal to bearishness....
Initial FTSE100 support is at the 9725 key fib level so an early drop to here may find support for a push back to the pivot. Below this though look for a move down to the 9693 S1 level.
The 2h chart has gone bearish as you'd expect and has a red coral at 9885 and the Hull dropping steadily with the 9860 area on that for today. Having dropped off that line at 9915 yesterday the bulls will be keen to try and get the price back up today and into next week. Bull Monday I expect....
As its Friday it can be worth just being a bit more cautious and risk off, so bear that in mind.
Have a great weekend and good trading today.
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