Technical analysis for 13th November 2025
FTSE100 Bias
- Bias: Mildly Bullish / Trending with Caution
Rationale & Key Observations:
- Technical indicators show a “Strong Buy” rating on moving averages and oscillators
- The index is trading at record highs, which confirms trend strength but also raises caution around potential over-extension.
- Support remains firm (e.g., ~9,623 zone) and upside still exists toward resistance near ~9,951.
- The broader context includes favourable currency dynamics, yield appeal, and global earnings exposure for UK-large-caps.
Interpretation:
- The path of least resistance remains upward while support holds; thus bias is buy-on-dips.
- But because momentum is strong and price is near extremes, expect possible pauses or consolidation ahead rather than a straight run.
- A break below key support would shift bias toward neutral.
S&P500 Bias
- Bias: Mildly Bullish with caution
Rationale:
- The S&P 500 recently held key technical support (50-day SMA / trendline) after a pull-back in early November.
- Earnings season remains solid: ~82% of companies beat estimates, and earnings growth remains double‐digit.
- However, technical structure is showing signs of pressure: “market technicals may be worsening.”
Interpretation:
- Trend remains upward, so the preferred strategy is buying dips, not chasing aggressive breakouts.
- Key support levels must hold to maintain bullish bias.
- Upside remains, but risk/reward is less favourable if momentum weakens.
DAX40 Bias
- Bias: Neutral to Mildly Bullish
Rationale:
- The DAX 40 has out-performed many peers year-to-date (≈ +23%), even though the German economy remains weak (Q3 GDP flat).
- Technical outlook says “potential pullback before continuation”.
- Technical indicators show “Strong Buy” ratings across moving averages in some time-frames.
Interpretation:
- The bullish trend is intact, but upside may be constrained and a pullback is plausible before another leg.
- Strategy: Buy dips within the trend. Break below support or major divergence would shift bias to neutral.
- Resist the temptation to chase without confirming momentum/support.
UK GDP has just been released which showed a 0.1% contraction for September, though GDP grew 0.1% in Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2025. Meanwhile. services (+0.2%) and construction (+0.1%) grew while the production sector fell (-0.5%).
That should help the bulls ultimately as they will be pinning their hopes on a December rate cut to boost growth so if we get a dip today we may well see the bulls appear later.
Initially we have resistance from the Hull MA and R1 at 9916 so a drop down from this to test the support at 9860 before more upside towards the 9950 are later would fit the chart well. 9860 is also the green 2h coral (as yet untested since turning bullish) and with S1 here I would like to see this hold. Overall the FTSE100 is still mildly bullish and the Raff channels continue to head upwards.
Above 9953 R2 then 9975 is R3 and of course they will be aiming for the 10000 level - if for no other reason to generate some headlines! As we are so close I am expecting the Santa Rally (which seemed to start at 9300 in October!) to push us up there.
If the bears were to break the 9860 level today then it makes the picture a bit more bearish and opens up a possible test of the 9800 level - we have S3 here today as well as the round number. It's worth noting that the daily RSI is back at 75 so some consolidation/modest pull back may well materialise soon. Maybe next week....
It's a similar picture for the DAX40 and the S&P500, which remain in "buy the dip" mode. The S&P500 has initial support at the daily pivot at the 6856 level and I would like to see that hold for a push up towards the R2 6904 level. The DAX40 has support as 24333 and if that holds then we may see some further upside this afternoon. Initially we have resistance at 24511 with the key fib here, which may well see a drop off at the open.
Good luck today.
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