Technical analysis for 8th July 2026
We head into Wednesday’s session with a slightly more mixed tone than we’ve had over the past few days. The broader trend across equities is still constructive, but there are signs of more caution creeping in after weakness in the semiconductor space overnight and renewed geopolitical tension in the Middle East. That combination has lifted oil prices again, steadied the dollar and made Gold a little more interesting after the softer tone earlier in the week. Reuters also noted that Germany’s industrial output came in stronger than expected for May, which should help underpin sentiment towards the DAX even if broader risk appetite is a touch less aggressive this morning.
For me, that shifts today away from a “buy everything on the open” type of session and more towards a be selective, wait for the pullback, then see whether buyers still want control approach. I still think the indices remain the cleaner markets overall, but the easy straight-line momentum may be fading a little in the short term. Gold, meanwhile, looks less straightforwardly bearish than it did a week ago because the geopolitical backdrop is giving it support again.
FTSE 100 — Bullish
- Bias: still one of the cleaner long charts
- FTSE is still respecting the rising daily channel well.
- Price is holding above the EMA25, above the EMA200, and remains in the upper half of the broader uptrend structure.
- The last few candles are basically consolidation after the big push higher rather than a proper reversal.
- My bias
- Bullish while above 10,616
- A dip into 10,616–10,590 that holds still favours longs
- If it reclaims and holds above pivot cleanly, it can grind back toward 10,720 / 10,785
DAX40 — Neutral to slightly bullish
- Bias: pullback into support, but not outright bearish
- Yesterday’s sharp red candle has pushed DAX down toward the lower half of the rising channel.
- Even after that selloff, price is still sitting above the EMA25 and well above the EMA200, so the bigger daily structure is still upward.
- Today’s candle so far is a small indecision / stabilisation candle after the drop, which suggests the market may be trying to base rather than continue straight down.
- My bias
- Neutral to slightly bullish while above 25,310
- If DAX holds above the 25,310–25,355 zone and starts reclaiming the pivot, I’d favour recovery longs
- If it loses 25,310, then I’d expect a deeper retrace toward 25,118
- Summary
- Bias = buy-the-dip only if support holds; otherwise step back.
Nasdaq 100 — Bearish
- Bias: still the weakest index chart
- Nasdaq continues to print a soft sequence of lower candles and is now sitting below the pivot and below the EMA25 area.
- The market is failing to hold rebounds and remains under the cluster of resistance around 29,500–29,600.
- Compared with DAX / FTSE / S&P, this is still the index with the clearest downside pressure.
- My bias
- Bearish while below 29,240 / 29,500
- If it rallies into the pivot / 29,500 area and stalls, I’d still favour sell-rallies
- Only a strong reclaim back above 29,500+ would improve the daily picture
- Summary
- Bias = bearish, and still the weakest of the five.
S&P 500 — Bullish, but currently in a pullback
- Bias: bullish trend / buy dips, not chase strength
- The S&P is still inside its rising channel and remains above the EMA25 and EMA200, so the broader daily structure is still constructive.
- It has pulled back from the upper part of the channel and is now sitting around the pivot zone, which looks more like a normal retracement than a trend break.
- The key thing here is that price hasn’t broken the rising structure yet.
- My bias
- Bullish while above 7,476
- Best setup is a dip hold around 7,476 / 7,480 followed by rotation back higher
- If it loses 7,476, then I’d shift to neutral and expect a deeper pullback toward 7,447
- Summary
- Bias = bullish, but it’s a dip-buy market rather than a breakout chase.
Gold — Neutral to slightly bullish
- Bias: rebound attempt, but still not a clean trend market
- Gold has stabilised after the recent drop and today is trying to bounce back from the EMA25 / pivot area.
- It’s not a strong trending long chart yet because it’s still stuck inside a broader messy structure and below heavier overhead resistance.
- But compared with yesterday’s look, today’s candle does improve it a bit and suggests a range rebound rather than immediate breakdown.
- My bias
- Neutral to slightly bullish while above 4,117–4,126
- If it can hold above pivot and squeeze through 4,155, there’s room for a rebound toward 4,212
- If it slips back under 4,117 / 4,067, then it turns soft again quickly
- Summary
- Bias = slight upside recovery bias, but still messy and not as clean as the index charts.
My practical bias for today
- Best long-bias markets
- FTSE above 10,616
- S&P above 7,476
- DAX only if it holds 25,310 and starts reclaiming pivot
- Best short-bias market
- Nasdaq while below 29,240–29,500
- More mixed / tactical
- Gold — tradable both ways intraday, but daily bias has improved slightly to the upside
FTSE 100 Analysis
The FTSE still looks constructive and continues to hold up well relative to some of the more growth-heavy equity markets. The recent strength in oil is helping the heavyweight energy names again, and that should continue to offer some support to the index if crude stays firm. The flip side is that a stronger open in the FTSE may not be quite as clean as it has been on some of the recent sessions because broader risk sentiment looks a little less relaxed this morning.
For me, the key with the FTSE today is whether any early dip gets bought. If it does, then the broader bullish structure remains intact and I’d still favour another push higher. If instead the market opens firm but can’t hold gains, then we may be moving into more of a range day than a clean trend day.
What I’m Watching
- An early pullback into support rather than a sharp reversal.
- Buyers defending the most recent breakout area.
- Whether energy-led strength can help the FTSE rebuild momentum if the broader market wobbles.
Trading Plan
- I still prefer buying pullbacks rather than chasing strength.
- If the FTSE dips into support and stabilises, I’d be looking for long setups back with the trend. If price starts losing the higher-low structure that has supported it over the last week, I’d become much more cautious about forcing longs too early.
DAX 40 Analysis
The DAX still looks technically constructive and, of the European indices, it remains one of the better-looking charts. The stronger-than-expected German industrial production number is a positive background input for today and helps support the idea that the DAX can continue holding up well on retracements. That said, I still think the best trade is likely to come from a pullback rather than a breakout chase. If we get a softer European open because of the overnight weakness in tech sentiment, I’d be more interested in seeing whether buyers defend support than in trying to predict a straight move higher from the first candle.
What I’m Watching
- A controlled dip into support rather than a full breakdown.
- Whether the higher-low structure remains intact.
- A recovery later in the session if European sentiment steadies.
Trading Plan
- The plan remains to buy dips while the bullish structure stays intact.
- I’d rather let the DAX come back into value and then look for confirmation from buyers. If it keeps respecting support, I still think the path of least resistance remains higher. If support starts breaking cleanly, then it becomes a very different session and I’d step back rather than force the trend idea.
S&P 500 Analysis
The S&P 500 still sits in a broader uptrend, but for me this is the market that looks the most vulnerable to a bit of short-term digestion today. The overnight pressure on chip stocks matters because it has been that part of the market doing a lot of the heavy lifting, and when semis wobble the S&P can quickly lose some of its momentum. Reuters flagged exactly that kind of softer risk tone overnight, with AI and semiconductor nerves dragging on sentiment. That doesn’t mean I’m bearish on the S&P overall — I’m not. It just means I think today is more likely to reward patience than aggression. If futures dip into support and hold, I’d still favour the long side. If we get choppy, indecisive price action after the open, then I’d be happy to leave it alone rather than overtrade a market that may just be consolidating.
What I’m Watching
- Whether futures can hold above the recent support band.
- Any early weakness being bought rather than accelerating lower.
- Whether the market can grind back higher without tech leadership fully returning.
Trading Plan
- I still favour buying retracements, but I’d be more selective here than on the FTSE or DAX.
- If the S&P gives a controlled pullback into support and buyers respond, I’d still lean long. If price just chops around and fails to build momentum, I’d treat it as a market that may need another day to reset before the next cleaner move appears.
Gold Analysis
Gold has become more interesting again. Earlier in the week it felt like a market that was trying to stabilise after its rebound, but the renewed Middle East tension and the wait for the Fed minutes have added another layer of support. Reuters reported that Gold wavered on Wednesday as traders weighed the geopolitical risk backdrop against rising Treasury yields and the possibility of a firmer Fed stance.
That keeps me from becoming aggressively bullish, because higher yields are still a headwind. But equally, I don’t think Gold is a clean sell here unless the geopolitical premium fades quickly. For today, it feels more like a tactical market than a trend market.
What I’m Watching
- Whether Gold can hold above its recent recovery support.
- Any intraday rejection if price pushes up into resistance.
- Whether buyers can sustain the move rather than just produce another headline-driven spike.
Trading Plan
- I’m neutral-to-slightly bullish on Gold today, but only if support keeps holding.
- If Gold pulls back and buyers step back in, there may be room for another move higher. If instead the market spikes and then immediately fades back under resistance, I’d be cautious about chasing it and would reassess whether it slips back into a messy range rather than a clean long setup.
Final Thoughts
For today, I still think the equity indices remain the cleaner markets overall, but I’m not expecting quite the same easy momentum we’ve had on some of the recent sessions. The FTSE still looks constructive and may continue to be supported by energy strength, the DAX remains bullish while its higher-low structure holds, and the S&P 500 still favours buying dips — just with a little more patience than usual because of the overnight wobble in tech sentiment.
Gold is the market that has improved most tactically. I’m not ready to call it a clean bullish trend market, but the combination of geopolitical tension and a market waiting for the Fed minutes means it deserves more respect on the upside than it did a few sessions ago.
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