Technical analysis for 16th January 2026
FTSE100 Bias
- BIAS: BULLISH (LEADER, BUT SELECTIVE)
- Price holding above the 10,000 zone keeps the trend constructive.
- Structure remains higher highs / higher lows.
- Momentum positive, but late-stage in the move → expect pauses/rotations.
- How to trade the bias
- Favour longs
- Buy pullbacks, not late breakouts
- Turn cautious only if price accepts back below ~9,980–10,000
S&P500 Bias
- BIAS: STRONG BULLISH (GLOBAL ANCHOR)
- Above key daily averages; no lower-high structure.
- Low volatility → grind-higher regime.
- Continues to anchor global risk appetite.
- How to trade the bias
- Trend-following longs
- Buy pullbacks
- Shorts only on a clear daily reversal (not present)
DAX40 Bias
- BIAS: STRONG BULLISH (GLOBAL ANCHOR)
- Above key daily averages; no lower-high structure.
- Low volatility → grind-higher regime.
- Continues to anchor global risk appetite.
- How to trade the bias
- Trend-following longs
- Buy pullbacks
- Shorts only on a clear daily reversal (not present)
FTSE100 Roadmap
- Above 10,185: Buy dips.
- Above 10,263: Momentum continuation toward 10,296–10,341.
- Below 10,140: Deeper pullback toward 10,100–10,050.
FTSE100 Today’s Likely Path
- Early: Range/coil around pivot.
- Mid/Late: Test 10,263, then 10,296.
- Best bull case: 10,330–10,341.
- Worst case: Controlled dip to 10,185, buyers defend.
It felt like the bullish momentum slowed down a bit yesterday and despite popping above the 10230 level to test 10250, we may be starting to see the bears having more of an attempt to drive it down a bit soon. We had a slight overshoot of the support yesterday but the bulls fought back well from the 10172 level so that remains the support level that they will need to break.
That said, the market can always stay irrational for longer than you can stay solvent so might well push a bit higher to squeeze more bears - both the Raff channels continue to head upwards and if we get a tailwind from the US then 10300 is possible. If we were to see this today, and we have R2 and the key fib here, as well as 10306 being a daily level, then shorting here is worth doing, especially ahead of the weekend. We also have the Davos summit starting on Monday.
If the bears were to break below the 10170 level then I am looking at a potential drop down to the 10100 level. That said, I think the bulls will be aiming to close the week out above the 10200 level if they possibly can. They will of course be happy with the US backing off a bit in the Iran attack rhetoric and we have seen the oil price start to drop already.
Nothing major too on the scheduled news releases so we should see reactions at the key levels in the table above. Keep an eye on those.
Good luck today and have a great weekend.
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