Technical analysis for 16th September 2026
Today is Fed day.....all kicking off at 1900 and we may well see a bit of a rise and dip for the FTSE100 today - with the S&P500 being a bit more tentative.
Yesterday delivered another risk-off move: the S&P 500 fell 0.45% to 7,585.73, the FTSE dropped to 10,658.13, oil surged again and the US 10-year Treasury yield moved above 5%, reaching its highest level since 2007.
Overnight there is a little relief. The US 10-year has slipped back to around 4.99%, Brent has eased towards $108, and S&P futures are fractionally positive. But with markets pricing more than a 92% probability of a 25bp Fed hike today,
To start with today I am expecting the bulls to continue their push and the second bounce off the 10590 level yesterday to try and recapture 10700. We are pretty close to that currently so I would actually like to see a test of the 10730 are where we have the key fib and the R1 level today. This is also just below the daily 25ema resistance at 10743, which would be the first test of that MA since it went bearish earlier this morth. As such this could well be a decent shorting level.
If the bulls were to break above the 10730 then I am looking at the 10777 level higher up - might be a big ask but depending on the Fed later we could potentially see this level this evening.
Support wise, then the 10660 daily pivot is key to start with and a climb from this would work well, otherwise 10614 S1 is next up, with the 10590 level below that once again. Lower still than 10515 and if the US markets tank on the Fed later I wouldn't rule that level out either tonight or tomorrow.
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