Technical analysis for 15th September 2026
The key development today is that the US 10-year has finally traded through 5%. It briefly breached that psychological level yesterday for the first time since 2023 and is around 4.99% this morning. Meanwhile Brent is back near $107, the dollar is strengthening, and the probability of a Fed hike tomorrow has risen to roughly 90–93%.
That keeps me defensive on equities. The interesting exception is the FTSE100, which rose yesterday despite the wider sell-off because defensive and energy-heavy sectors provided support.
The 2h FTSE100 chart is still bullish for the moment and has support from the Hull MA at 10630 so I would like to see any initial test of this area hold to set up a climb towards the 10750 area - but as we will likely have a bear Tuesday I am expecting to see a lot of shorting the rallies today across the board. Initially we have resistance at the 10690 level with the daily pivot here and this may well stop any early bounce for a drop down towards the 10640 area - S1 at 10635 and the key fib at 10621. Slightly lower is the 10592 daily support level that held on Friday and would be worth a long again if seen. Lower still then look for 10515.
If the bulls were to break above the 10700 level then 10750 as mentioned is on the cards, with both the 25ema on the daily and the R1 level here. As such it should in theory provide strong resistance. All the daily charts now have bearish EMAs as well so generally traders will be looking to short rallies at the moment, especially as we have a potential rise in US interest rates being announced tomorrow evening (potentially raising to 4%).
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