Technical analysis for 30th September 2026
There is a subtle but potentially important change in the market picture this morning. Bond yields remain extremely high, but equities are proving much more resilient than might normally be expected. The US 10-year is around 5.23%, close to its highest level since 2007, while Brent has eased substantially from Monday's highs to around $96. S&P 500 futures are up about 0.24%, DAX futures roughly 0.76% and FTSE futures around 0.71% in early trading.
The FTSE100 is giving us an interesting setup this morning. DFB is around 10,693, having recovered strongly from yesterday's sell-off, but the bigger daily structure remains bearish. Price is still below the daily 10 and 25 EMAs, while the 30-minute recovery is running into a substantial resistance cluster immediately above.
The macro picture is a little more supportive than yesterday because oil fell sharply on Tuesday, although the global bond market remains the major headwind. So my bias today is bearish-to-neutral, with a preference for selling a failed recovery rather than chasing the market lower. It was positive to see the 10612 Raff channel test hold yesterday evening and the bulls have fought back well, and will now be looking to break above the 10700 level. I am still looking at resistance at 10790 on the daily chart, though prior to that we have a small cluster of key indicators at 10747 including R1 so we may well see any early push up later here.
Initially we have support at the 10660 area but if the bears have another attempt today (though the bulls have the upper hand starting today) then look for support at the 10595 area next though I am not expecting it to get that low today (famous last words!)
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