Technical analysis for 1st October 2026
The start of Q4 brings one genuinely encouraging change to the market backdrop - US inflation came in softer than expected yesterday, substantially reducing expectations of another immediate Federal Reserve rate rise.
But there is a catch in that long-term bond yields haven't followed Fed expectations lower. The US 10-year touched 5.306%, its highest since 2007, while the dollar has reached a three-month high. Meanwhile, Brent has fallen sharply this morning towards $97, providing some much-needed relief from the energy shock.
We start the new quarter and month looking pessimistic but on decent daily support at the 10530 level which may well see an initial kick up as the new month money comes in..... Despite things looking more positive on the face of it the FTSE100 futures aren't really that bullish, unlike the uS futures, and as such we shall remain cautious. If the bears were to break below the 10530 level then I am looking at the 10480 level as the next key support, with 10415 below that and a level that should in theory see a decent bounce if tested..... possibly!
For the bulls, if we do get a kick up today then the first key level his the daily pivot at the 10630 level and a test of this during the morning session would be good. Should they break above this then look for a test of the 30m 200ema at 10660 above, and then 10697 R1 and the round number, though both of those feel somewhat optimistic! Then again, this is the FTSE100 we are talking about....
On the daily chart we are at the bottom of the Raff channels once again and have dropped significantly from the 10730 level yesterday, typically just shy of the 10744 short order level....
So a few levels in play for today and continue to stay nimble - NFP tomorrow in the US which may well beat and is driving the US rally currently, despite the forecast being lower than previously.
For more more analysis including other markets please join...
Interested in how to start trading the FTSE 100? Frequently Asked Questions on Spread betting
Recommended Broker for trading - MT4/5, web and mobile
IC - offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!
Join my Membership for Trading Tips, Support and Resistance Levels with Live Trading
If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX40, Gold and the S&P500, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.
Keep up to date with new website posts, free sign up below
