Technical analysis for 29th September 2026
The dominant story this morning is increasingly clear: the global bond sell-off is becoming the main obstacle for risk assets. The US 10-year Treasury yield surged above 5.27% overnight, a 19-year high, while the 2-year is approaching 5%. At the same time Brent remains around $100 as there is still no breakthrough in the Middle East. That's an uncomfortable combination of high energy costs and rapidly rising borrowing costs.
After a decent day yesterday with the FTSE100 playing out well but failing to break above the 10770 resistance level (still in play for today) we may well be on for a bear Tuesday and I am looking at an initial kick up towards the 10740 area before the bears have another attempt. The 10690 support level held well yesterday for the run up to 10750 and they will be looking to break below that today. However early on I am thinking that we may well see a brief move below it and then the bulls fight back a bit.
10689 is S1 for today as well, and 10684 is a fib level. If it were to dip below this then look for support at the 10659 key fib level and we should get a bounce there if seen, as we also have daily support at 10650. Lower support is at 10612 with S3 and the 10d Raff channel bottom here.
If the bulls were to break above the 10740 level today then 10770 remains key, with 10790 above that - I am not expecting that to get tested today (maybe later this week though, especially if yields fall). If we were to see 10770 then it's also worth a short here today.
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