Technical analysis for 28th September 2026
The new week begins with the same two forces that have dominated September: oil and interest rates.
Brent has jumped about 2% this morning to roughly $106.50 after hopes for a US-Iran agreement faded. Bond yields are rising again, markets now price roughly a 66% chance of another Fed hike in October, and Gold has fallen more than 2%. European equity futures are nevertheless slightly firmer, while Asian markets and US futures are more subdued.
The unusual feature of the current market is that economic growth and corporate earnings remain strong while the monetary backdrop is becoming increasingly restrictive.
This morning's FTSE100 setup looks slightly bearish-to-neutral rather than aggressively bearish. The DFB is around 10,710 as I write this, and Friday's session failed to establish a meaningful recovery. On the 30-minute chart, price is sitting just underneath the daily pivot and the short-term EMA cluster, while the daily chart remains below its 10 and 25 EMAs.
The positive point is that 10,690-700 continues to attract buyers. So I wouldn't chase a short at 10,710 to start with but look to buy the dip around the 10690 level for a bull Monday, at least initially. My preferred setup is a rally into 10,774, followed by a rejection.
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