Technical analysis for 24th November 2025
Global stocks began an event-filled week on the front foot on Monday, as investors took heart from growing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December even as policymakers remain divided over such a move.
FTSE 100 Bias
- Bias - Neutral → Mildly Bearish
- Rationale - The FTSE is under pressure: the daily chart shows a breakdown inside its rising channel, and price is trading below key EMAs. Momentum is fading, suggesting a risk of further weakness or a consolidation phase rather than a fresh rally. Support zones need to hold for any bounce play.
S&P500 Bias
- Bias - Bullish with Caution
- Rationale - The S&P is trending higher and technically strong, but is becoming overextended. The trend remains up, though further gains may be limited without a pullback or consolidation to reset momentum. Key support must hold to maintain the bullish case.
DAX40 Bias
- Bias - Mildly Bullish
- Rationale - The DAX remains in its long-term uptrend, and trend structure is intact. However, recent candles suggest momentum is slowing, so a corrective dip is likely before another leg higher. Buyers may use weakness, but upside conviction needs confirmation.
Summary Interpretation
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Overall risk tone: Skewed toward bullishness globally, but not aggressively so — all three indices lean long, but each is showing signs of short-term exhaustion or corrective risk.
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Tactical approach: Prefer buy-on-dips across the board, rather than chasing breakouts.
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Watch zones closely: For FTSE, watch for support to hold; for DAX and S&P, watch for dips into value zones as potential entry areas before continuation.
- Risk scenario: If support breaks on either FTSE or S&P, bias could shift to neutral or slightly bearish. Conversely, a strong bounce in DAX could re-establish more aggressive bullish bias.
Well here we are with the budget week and it feels like we have no clue what to expect (joke, more teasers/sentiment tests than ever!) and as such we may well see some subdued acton, especially as the US will be closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving and reduced on Friday for Black Friday. Initially today I am thinking that we will get a bull Monday and build on the climb on Friday, and a drop back to the daily pivot supports on all three markets may well then see the bounce.
Traders are likely to still be a bit hesitant and we will be looking closely at the budget and the repercussions. Already it's had an effect on job vacancies which have tumbled to a four year low. It means vacancies are now at their lowest level since 2021, when businesses were being hammered by lockdown restrictions during the pandemic. Underlines how much business confidence has been knocked in the past 12 months.
If the daily pivot holds as support at the 9535 level, and we do also have the green 30m coral here for extra support, then we should get a climb up through 9600 and a possible test of the R1 level at 9643. As a slight spanner in the works on that rise though the daily 25ema resistance is at 9625, and also that is just above the 10d Raff channel top so the bulls will have to get the momentum going.
Should they break above the 9650 level then look for 9700 though that feels a big ask for today.
On the flip side, if the bears were to break below the daily pivot then we would likely see it slide as far as S1 and the key fib 9470 where I would like to see a bounce. This is also the Hull MA on the 2h chart so would certainly be a good point to set up a decent bullish run into year end.
Similar picture for the S&P500 and DAX40 with a potential drop into the daily pivot supports at 6593 and 24209 respectively, and again a climb towards R! from there would fit the charts well.
Good luck today.
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