Technical analysis for 25th November 2025
Overall Market Tone: Cautious–Bearish Early, Watching for Intraday Stabilisation
Across all three indices, short-term momentum remains muted with price sitting near or below daily pivots, EMAs flattening or rolling over, and intraday charts showing compression. Bias remains slightly bearish unless key upside reclaim levels break.
FTSE 100 — Bias: Mildly Bearish / Range-Bound
Technical Posture
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Price sits just below the Daily Pivot (~9539)—a weak start.
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30-min chart shows heavy consolidation, all EMAs tight and flat.
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The 200-EMA overhead acts as resistance.
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Downward pressure remains from the broader daily channel.
Key Levels
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Bull trigger: Break & hold above 9560–9580
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Bear continuation: Loss of 9500 → 9440 (S1/S2)
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Range floor: 9470–9500
Likely Scenarios
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Early fade from pivot → retest 9500
Preferred short setup. -
Only bullish if 9560 reclaimed with momentum
Would open path toward 9600–9620.
DAX 40 — Bias: Slightly Bearish but Reactive
Technical Posture
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Price remains weak within a downward sloping short-term channel.
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Daily structure still leaning bearish after repeated lower highs.
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Intraday compression suggests the open could be choppy.
S&P 500 (SPX) — Bias: Neutral → Slight Weakness
Technical Posture
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SPX has been the strongest index recently, but short-term momentum softening.
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Sitting near its own daily pivot; EMAs flattening but not breaking down.
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No meaningful selling pressure
Likely Scenarios
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Still the index most likely to stabilise and drag others up.
A pretty decent day yesterday despite the drift lower for the FTSE100 with the price holding above the Hull MA on the 2h but as yet not testing it - that is therefore support today at 9505 and if we see an early drop down from the pivot area then I would like to see a bounce here. The bulls will of course be aiming to break above Friday's high and the round number at 9600 to resume the Santa Rally from the 9300 level in October.
Initially we have resistance from the daily pivot, 200ema on the 30min, and the red coral all at 9553. If the bulls were to break above this then 9591 is R1 which aligns nicely with the daily resistance level and Fridays high at 9593 so that may well cap any rises today for a bear Tuesday again. Should it break then look for 9612 key fib, and 9653 above that, though on the eve of the tax busting budget we may well see some trepidation across the board.
It's also worth noting that the daily chart is bearish with the 25ema resistance at 9615 and as such should we see this level then a short here is also worth a go. Feels a bit optimistic to get that high today but do keep it in mind.
For the bears if the 9500 level breaks then 9484 key fib is next, with 9466 S2 below that. Despite a bear Tuesday on the cards that might be a bit pessimistic, though ultimately the bears do still have 9400 in their sights!
Good luck today.
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