Technical analysis for 21st November 2025
FTSE 100 — Bias: Bearish but near short-term exhaustion
- Why:
- Price remains inside the clear daily descending channel
- Multiple failed tests of the 10-day EMA and 25-day EMA from below.
- Daily candles continue making lower highs and lower lows.
- RSI sitting in mild bearish territory but not oversold → room for one more push down.
- Price is now approaching S1 → S2 daily support cluster, where buyers normally appear.
- Bias summary:
- Short-term still bearish, but weakening — FTSE is getting near a location where a bounce or consolidation becomes likely.
DAX 40 — Bias: Mildly Bearish / Consolidation
- Why:
- The DAX structure is weaker than the S&P but stronger than FTSE.
- It has broken below the 10- and 25-day EMAs but is holding above major swing support.
- Weak downside momentum — recent candles show small bodies, suggesting seller fatigue.
- No aggressive breakdown like FTSE has shown.
- Bias summary:
- Soft bearish bias, but more sideways than outright falling. The DAX is drifting rather than trending.
S&P 500 — Bias: Neutral → Slightly Bullish
- Why:
- Still trading above major moving averages (trend remains up overall).
- Pullbacks remain shallow — no lower-low break on the daily.
- RSI corrected without breaking bullish structure.
- U.S. markets currently the strongest of the three.
- Bias summary:
- The only index still holding a broader bullish structure. Short-term pullbacks, but trend remains intact unless key support breaks.
The FTSE100 is likely to trade lower overall, with high probability of testing 9390 sometime today. A brief morning bounce is possible, but unless price gets above 9500, bears remain in control.
The bears are firmly in control at the moment as we continue to drop off the 9900 level with the inevitable profit taking after that decent climb from 9300. We should soon see the bulls reappear to pump it back up for the year end rally though, and we are still at a pretty decent level for the year around this 9400 level.
Initially today we have resistance at 9493 daily pivot and the bulls will really need to break above the 9500 level today if they are to have a chance of pushing the price up towards the R1 9552 level. We have just had news out that retail sales declined in October - not really much of a surprise as consumers continue to tighten their belts.
If the bulls can defend any drop down to the 9390 area today then it bodes well for the selling to ease off a bit, though given the recent declines the daily chart has gone bearish with the 25ema resistance locked in at 9615 now - any rally to this area may well then see some more selling kick in.
Below 9390 then the bears will be looking to test the 9332 S2 level but that feels a bit too pessimistic to me, however as its Friday anything could happen!
On the flip side, above the 9550 level then 9570 is the 30m 200ema and then the 9615 level.
It's a similar picture for the DAX40 and S&P500 with a possible early rally to the daily pivot before a drop off from there.
Good luck today and have a great weekend.
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