Technical analysis for FTSE 100 for 12th March 2025
Volatility continues to be the order of the day and having declined steadily this week we are still probably due a bounce. Progress with the peace deal with Russia may well help the bulls case soon, though tariff news continues to weigh. Whilst the daily charts are bearish, there is a glimmer of optimism on the 2h charts with the Nasdaq going bullish today, and the FTSE100 needing to break the nearby 8538 2h resistance. However the 25ema on the daily is now resistance at 8659 - should we see a rise to this area then we may well see any bounce falter here.
Initially today I would like to see any dip down to the 8466 level hold and set up a decent double bottom with yesterday, and we also have the key fib here. That's just above the 20d Raff channel bottom too at 8460 so another support level here from that.
A break of 8460 though and then a slide down to the 8400 level is probably likely, with this level looking like it may well hold. The S&P500 is coming into its next support range at 5400-5500 as well which may well act as a spring board. Maybe!
Initial resistance for the FTSE100 is at the daily pivot at the 8538 level and having capped things overnight and also being the Hull MA on the 2h (albeit not the first test) the bulls will have to really push to break above this. If they manage to do so then a rise to the 8612 level would be good and a test of R1 and the 30m 200ema. 8590 is also the key fib resistance for today though so they will certainly have their work cut out. Some positive news flow may well help though.
Unlikely but a break above the 8612 level would then likely manage the 25ema 8659 as mentioned above, but that's a very big ask!
The S&P500 continues it bearishness but a double bottom on that at 5525 may well set up a decent bounce - we have S1 here and its also just below the 5535 key fib. The bulls need to break above 5590 Hull MA resistance though which would then see a rise towards the 2h coral at the 5655 area. Again, the bulls will be hoping for decent news to start flowing to help their case.
Fear continues to drive the markets with a "what will Trump do next" pervading for the moment, however, it never continues in a straight line and a bounce soon will be inevitable. For the FTSE, a move back up though the 8650 level would be needed, whilst the S&P500 is still due a test of the 25ema on the daily, now at the 5870 level.
Good luck today.
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