Technical analysis for FTSE 100 for 11th March 2025
Most definitely not a bull Monday yesterday however the S&P500 has managed to drop down to the 5600 support area, and having gone a bit lower, to 5550, it has bounced back above 5600. As such we may well see a bit of brave bull buying today. The FTSE100 bulls will be keen to defend the 8600 level today but we will need to break above the Hull MA 2h resistance at 8620 early on really.
There is potential for a rise to test the 8680 area today and with the key fib and the 30m 200ema in this area we may then see any rise falter here (and possibly the bears reloading).
Overnight we have set a decent double bottom at the 8540 level, so that is the current line in the sand, though slightly lower the daily support level of 8510 remains for the moment, along with the bottom of both the Raff channels at 8520. It feels like this drop down across the board is part of an orchestrated effort to trap bulls and go for stops, and a bounce back up may well commence later this month. That is just my gut feel though looking at the charts!
If the bears were to break below the 8500 level though then 8414 is S2 for today and whilst that feels a big ask, if we get some pessimistic news its not impossible. On the news front today we really only have the US Jolts data at 14:00, with a forecast 7.65m, and a slight increase over last month.
Back to the FTSE100 bull case and if they were to break above the 8696 level where we have R1 and just above the resistance already mentioned, then the bulls will be aiming for a test of the 8720 level again, and then 8750 above that to retest the recent high from Friday. Also note though that we have a red 2h coral with resistance at 8688 today so I expect this area to be decent resistance if seen.
The S&P500 2h chart is bearish as you would expect and the bulls will need to break 5665 Hull MA resistance today. An initial rise to this area this morning would fit the chart well, and we could see the bears then reappear here today. A break above would be looking to get the 5677 key fib level.
The Dax40 meanwhile will be looking to get a rise towards the 23000 level to test the R1 and Hull MA resistance level. First up though is the 22860 level for a test of the key fib and the 30m 200ema - an initial stall of any rise here would make sense early on today.
So, continue to stay nimble and lets see if we get a bit of upside today - dead cat bounce and some brave buying!
Good luck.
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