Should see a rise and dip today | 7640 holds | 7620 7594 below | 7675 7730 resistance

Should see a rise and dip today | 7640 holds | 7620 7594 below | 7675 7730 resistance


Technical analysis for FTSE 100 for 19th September 2023

The FTSE 100 closed in the red as traders looked ahead to the Bank of England’s interest rate decision on Thursday.  The top index ended 0.76pc lower at 7,652.94. The domestically focused FTSE 250 index tumbled 1.81pc to finish at 18,449.27.

Asian stocks fell on concern policy decisions from major central banks this week will stay hawkish as inflation remains a threat. The rally in oil gathered pace, with Brent touching $95 per barrel. Shares in mainland China slipped on speculation the nation’s economic recovery is faltering. Equities also dropped in Japan and Australia, although the latter pared losses after central bank minutes showed a higher hurdle for further tightening. The Federal Reserve sets policy Wednesday, the Bank of England Thursday and the Bank of Japan Friday.

Asian shares sank on Tuesday, as worries about the Chinese property sector weighed on markets from Hong Kong to Australia, while Japanese investors sold chip stocks on their return from a holiday-extended weekend.

Crude oil continued its rally amid tighter supply, stoking worries about stagflation.

FTSE 100 technical analysis for today, 19th September 2023

Not a good sign for the bulls yesterday as the FTSE 100 declined, though of course we are at the mid point of the month which is usually the most bearish point of September. We usually decline for the second half of September, based on the seasonality chart plotting the averages from the last 20 years. As such, the 7760 might well be the short term high, especially if rates are increased further this week. Oil reaching nearly $100 per barrel certainly won't be helping to cool inflation!

The 2h chart has gone bearish as you would expect and has the 7730 level as Hull MA resistance, which also ties in with the key fib at 7723. If the bulls were able to get it this high today then a short here looks to be worth a go. However we have closer resistance at the daily pivot at the 7675 level to start with and should we get an early bounce, it could just fizzle out here. The S&P bulls didn't exactly set the world alight with the bounce off the 4445 support yesterday.

However, the S&P500 does now have a green 30m coral at 4448 having held this area overnight which lends weight to the rise and dip scenario for today. Usually after a bear Monday we do get a bit of a bounce on the Tuesday as it upsets the rhythm of the bull Monday, bear Tuesday pattern.

Initial support for the FTSE 100 is at the 7630 area as we have the 30m 200ema here, along with S1, though the daily support is lower down at 7606. Should we see that then a bounce here may well happen. 7594 is also S2, and we also have the bottom of the 10d Raff channel in play for today with 7620 support from that.

The daily chart is also bullish with the 25ema bullish and as yet untested. We have support from that way down at 7520 - not Lilly to see that today but a drop down to test this line and a bounce could well happen this week.

The S&P500 2h chart is bearish with 4470 as the level that the bulls will need to break, however with this being the most bearish week of the year, shorting the rallies is the bias play.

The Dax40 2h chart is also bearish with the 15830 as Hull MA resistance so keep an eye out for this level.

Good luck today!

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