Technical analysis for FTSE 100 for 1st October 2025
Another new month (already!) so will likely see a rise and dip play out as the new month money flows in, albeit hampered by the US government shut down which may well curtail too much excess! The FTSE100 has broken above the 9350 level now and remains in buy the dip territory as the bulls will look to test the 9400 level next. 9700 year end?!
Initially I would like to see a decent short off that 9405 area as we have the key fib and R1 here, as well as it being just above the 20d Raff channel at 9395, and just below the 10d Raff channel at 9411.
Business confidence has plunged to a record low ahead of the Budget as the Chancellor prepares a fresh wave of tax rises. Confidence among bosses has fallen below the levels after Liz Truss’s mini-Budget and the first Covid lockdown, which triggered the biggest economic shock in Britain in 300 years. The Institute of Directors (IoD) said its closely watched survey of business leaders’ optimism in the economy fell to -74 in September from -61 the previous month.
If the bulls were to break above the 9410 area then we may well see more buying to target R2 at 9447, but I think it may be a bit more muted today as the bulls look to consolidate between the 9335 daily pivot level and 9405. They will certainly want to defend any tests below the 9350 level, as that has now become support instead of resistance. They were certainly determined to break above it.
Support wise, then 9335 level is the main one to start with as we have the daily pivot here and also the 2h Hull MA to lend support. The 30m coral is also green with support at 9350. Lower down then look for it to potentially slide as low as 9295 and test the 30m 200ema, and S1 is also here at 9293. Lower still then the key fib is 9277 but as mentioned I am more inclined to go with 9335 holding, though unexpected news events notwithstanding!
On the news front then manufacturing PMI at 0930 is the UK centric release, while we are due to have USA ADP employment at 1315 so expect some volatility then.
With the shutdown the S&P500 may be a bit more muted but again I would expect a rise and dip to play out, with a test of the 6685 R1 level which is also yesterdays high, before dropping back. The 30m 200ema is support initially at 6650, with 6635 S1 below that. 6650 is also decent support on the 2h chart with the Hull MA here and 6644 coral - so if this area holds we should get a decent rise.
The DAX40 is just on daily pivot support at 23842 as I write this, so a rise from here to test the 24015 area before dropping back would fit the chart well. This resistance level does look strong though with the R1 and key fib levels both here. The bears may well have a go here, as it's also the round number area. Below the daily pivot then look for the 23695 key fib level to get tested, though we also have the 30m 200ema as a possible reaction zone, at 23755.
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