Technical analysis for 4th February 2026
FTSE100 Bias
- Neutral → Slight Bullish Bias
- Structure: Still holding within the rising channel. Price is sitting just above daily pivot and riding the short-term EMA support.
- Momentum: RSI mid-range (not overbought), room for continuation.
- Bias:
- Bullish while above: ~10,190–10,200 zone
- Targets: 10,300 → 10,360 (R2 / channel top)
- Bear flip below: 10,150 opens 10,090 → 10,020
- Takeaway: Buy dips into support unless we lose the pivot cleanly.
S&P500 Bias
- Bullish Continuation Bias
- Structure: Holding above pivot and riding EMAs inside rising channel. Strong reclaim of mid-channel support.
- Momentum: RSI stable, trend intact.
- Bias:
- Bullish above: ~6,930–6,950
- Targets: 7,020 → 7,080 → 7,130 (R2/R3 zone)
- Bear flip below: 6,880 opens 6,820
- Takeaway: Trend-following longs favored unless pivot breaks.
DAX40 Bias
- Bearish / Sell-Rallies Bias
- Structure: Still inside a descending channel. Price rejected near the EMA / R1 zone and failed to reclaim trendline.
- Momentum: RSI weak, no bullish divergence follow-through.
- Bias:
- Primary: Bearish below ~24,900
- Downside targets: 24,600 → 24,350 → 24,100
- Bull invalidation: Daily close above 25,050
- Takeaway: Rallies into resistance look like short opportunities.
FTSE100 Roadmap
- Above 10,258: Buy dips → target 10,350 → 10,443
- Above 10,350: Momentum run → 10,500+
- Below 10,200: Pullback phase → 10,145
Likely Path
- Early: Shallow dip into 10,280–10,310
- Mid-session: Break attempt at 10,350
- Bull case: Extension to 10,443 → 10,500
- Bear case: Failure back to 10,200–10,145
Some strength has come back in to both equities and metals overnight and the FTSE100 is looking like we may finally get the push towards the 10420 resistance level at some point soon. The key will be the bulls defending any early dip down to the daily pivot at the 10301 level. As long as that holds then I am looking for a push upwards today.
Initial resistance is at the key fib and R1 area around the 10370 level (and also the recent high) but having dropped off this level a couple of times if it gets tested during a third session it is more inclined to break. Buying the dips is still working for the moment as we saw yesterday on indices and metals, albeit with quite the volatility and key level overshoots.
If they do manage to push above that then 10395 is next up, with the 10420 as mentioned higher still. I dont see it really powering ahead of that but if it did then look for R2 at 10443. The bulls may well be helped by some the news releases today, with the ISM and ADP out later possibly helping the S&P500 push towards 7000+ and that will help the FTSE100 also.
For the bears, below 10300 then we may well see them aim for the 10220 key fib level and just below 10230 S1, with a possible slide further to S2 at 10160 and a test of the bottom of the 10d Raff channel. Both Raff channels continue to head upwards still on the daily chart. The 2h chart moving averages are bearish, but in a good sign for the bulls the price is above the Hull MA at 10303 - so we may well see that turn to support today to also lend some weight to that area this morning.
The S&P500 and DAX40 also start the day looking more positive after bear Tuesday, and we may well see some further upside towards the 7000 snd 25000 levels respectively.
With 6995 R1 for the S&P500 we could see a stall here but also look out for the 7013 recent high to get tested again. For the DAX40, a move above the 24980 key fib will possibly see 25100 once again and set up a nice double top shorting area.
Good luck today.
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