Technical analysis for FTSE 100 for 19th December 2024
Well that wasn't very festive of the Fed last night with them killing off the Santa Rally before it had even really started. They raised their inflation forecast which set the cat amongst the pigeons, despite cutting the interest rate as expected. We have the BoE today with rates here likely to remain on hold, though inflation here as also ticked up according to data yesterday. As most of us know it's actually a lot higher than 2.6% in the real world anyway!
For today we may well see some brave fund managers start to buy this dip as retail will have been spooked into selling by this drop this morning so they can buy cheaper than they could yesterday. They will be looking to push it for the year end performance figures!
Initially today we have resistance at the 8141 daily pivot level, and the 8100 round number has held as support overnight, after hitting a low of 8070 overnight.
We have the key fib at 8070 as well for today so if we tested that it would make a good double bottom boule level as well, if the bulls are slow to pull away from the 8100 level initially.
If the bears break below 8070 then 8049 is S1, but the bears will be aiming for 8000 after that. I don't think we will get that low and a dead cat bounce today would make sense. Also note that the S1 level tallies with the bottom of the 10d Raff channel.
If the bulls can move above the 8150 level today then 8210 is the next level of note, where we have the R1 and 200ema. If the bulls do regain control it will be a good sign for more upside running into the close on Tuesday (half day Tuesday by the way). Once resistance levels start getting recaptured it will help the buying. It would also turn today's potential dead cat bounce into more of a rally.
The 8210 level is also the now red 2h coral line, so should the bulls manage to get it that high it's certainly looking like a key level that they will need to break. Above that then back to the 8300 area, which is R2 today.
If we do start to see a bounce from the 8100 level then remember you can always fade in longs rather than going all in to start with. As you will see in the trade room, I have started to do that with a long at 8102. Watching closely!!!
Don't forget the BoE at midday. Good luck today.
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