Technical analysis for FTSE 100 for 18th December 2024
Maybe should have held the Dax40 short a bit longer as it managed 20190 overnight! Anyway, the bears took control again yesterday with more downside playing out on yet another bear Tuesday and the FTSE100 dipping below the 8200 level ahead of various Federal Banks today and tomorrow. Fed likely to announce a cut today, BoE to hold steady tomorrow.
The bulls will now be keen to defend the 8190 test again so we may well see a bit of upside today, towards the 8250 area initially, as we have a cluster of resistantance here, with the 2h coral, key fib and 30m 200ema. I expect we may well see buy the rumour, sell the news play out today, and of course on the longer timeframes we are still in buy the dip territory for the year end.
Above 8250 then the bulls will be aiming for the 8310 level again, and we have R3 here today as well, but 8300 is the top of the 10d Raff channel so this area if seen may well present a bit of a wall. Not sure they will get above the 8310 area today though, but never say never. If they did then the 8334 recent high would be the next level of note.
Support wise today, the 8190 level remains really, but if they break below that then 8171 is worth a long as we have daily support here, and just above the S1 level at 8166. Lower down 8152 is the key fib, but if it did dip I do expect that 8170 area to hold.
The Dax40 has just broken below the bottom of the 20d Raff channel and if it was to sell off further I would like to see a bounce at S3 20016 as we also have the bottom of the 10d Raff channel here.
UK PCI inflation data has just been released as well showing a slight uptick from last month but as forecast at 2.6%. Traders will be hoping that means further reductions in interest rates - still think they will wait till Feb though, but it will depend on the December figure released in January.
So generally expecting a bit of a fight back from the bulls today and keep an eye on 8250 and 8309 resistance. 8170 support if it gets bearish.
Good luck today!
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