Technical analysis for 13th July 2026
Well, we start the new week with the geopolitical situation firmly back in control of the markets. Fighting in the Gulf has intensified again and the uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz has sent oil sharply higher this morning.
That has immediately brought the inflation problem back into focus.
Asian markets have been hit hard overnight, European futures are pointing lower and the US markets are also under pressure ahead of the open. The dollar and bond yields have both pushed higher as traders increase their expectations that the Federal Reserve may need to raise rates again.
So, after the fairly resilient finish to last week, we have a much more cautious backdrop this morning. The big question today is whether the equity markets can absorb another geopolitical shock and attract buyers on the dip, or whether this is the start of a more meaningful risk-off move.
The overall tone has shifted more defensive. My bias today is bearish DAX and Gold, cautious bearish Nasdaq and FTSE, while the S&P remains the strongest market structurally. The key driver is the escalation in the Gulf and renewed uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz: oil is up more than 4%, global equities and US futures are under pressure, the dollar and Treasury yields have risen, while gold has surprisingly fallen more than 1% as inflation and rate-hike concerns outweigh the safe-haven bid.
FTSE 100 — SLIGHTLY BEARISH
- The FTSE continues to look heavy.
- Price has repeatedly failed around the 10,650–10,680 area and is now trading below the EMA10 at 10,527 and beneath the daily pivot around 10,512.
- Today's candle is testing 10,477 S1.
- The chart is still within the broader rising structure, so I don't see this as a major trend reversal yet. However, short-term momentum is favouring sellers.
- My preferred scenario is a failed bounce into 10,490–10,527.
- Below 10,477, I would look towards 10,419, then potentially 10,385.
- A sustained recovery above 10,527 would neutralise the bearish intraday bias, while 10,570 is the bigger bullish trigger.
DAX 40 — BEARISH
- The DAX chart has deteriorated significantly. Price is now below the daily pivot at 25,083, below the EMA200 around 25,026 and below the EMA25 around 25,138.
- The important feature is today's move through the 24,967 S1 area and down towards 24,816 S2. Price is also testing the lower rising channel support, so there is a potential bounce area here, but momentum is clearly favouring sellers.
- My bias is sell rallies rather than buy dips.
- The levels I'm watching are 24,967–25,025 as initial resistance, then 25,083–25,138 as the stronger sell zone. Downside targets are 24,816, then 24,700.
- A recovery above 25,138 would make me reconsider the bearish bias.
Nasdaq 100 — SLIGHTLY BEARISH
- Nasdaq has rejected the recovery from Thursday and Friday and is back below the EMA cluster around 29,570–29,592.
- Price is also trading beneath the daily pivot at 29,726 and is sitting around 29,385.
- The descending channel remains intact, which is the main reason I'm maintaining a bearish lean.
- However, price is approaching 29,334 / S2, so I wouldn't chase shorts directly into that support.
- My preference is a bounce towards 29,570–29,725 followed by rejection.
- Below 29,334, the next downside level is 29,200.
- A break and hold above 29,725 would neutralise the bearish view.
- Bias: SLIGHTLY BEARISH — sell rallies.
S&P 500 — BULLISH / BUY DIPS
- The S&P remains the strongest chart of the five.
- Price is still trading inside the rising daily channel and remains above both moving averages. The EMA10 is around 7,510, with the EMA25 around 7,473.
- Today's weakness currently looks more like a pullback within an uptrend rather than a bearish reversal.
- The key area for me is 7,510–7,530.
- If buyers defend that zone, I favour a move back towards the 7,556 pivot, followed by 7,605 R1.
- Below 7,497, the chart becomes more vulnerable to a deeper test of 7,482 and 7,456.
- For now, I would still favour buying confirmed dips rather than shorting strength.
- This is my preferred long market today.
Gold — BEARISH
- Gold looks particularly weak today.
- Price has rejected the 4,109 pivot / EMA area and is now trading around 4,061.
- More importantly, price is testing the intersection of the rising red channel support and descending green channel structure.
- The levels are tightly clustered around 4,047–4,022.
- My bias is bearish while price remains below 4,084–4,109.
- I would prefer to sell a bounce towards 4,084 or 4,104–4,109, rather than chase the current move lower.
- Below 4,047, I think 4,022 becomes highly likely.
- A clean break beneath 4,022 would be technically significant and could accelerate the move lower.
- Gold is my preferred short market today.
My two clearest directional ideas
- LONG: S&P 500
- I favour buying a confirmed hold/reversal from 7,510–7,530, targeting 7,556, then 7,605.
- SHORT: Gold
- I favour selling a failed recovery into 4,084–4,109, targeting 4,047, then 4,022.
The S&P versus Gold divergence is the standout for me today — S&P remains structurally bullish while Gold is pressing major support with bearish momentum. I would be particularly interested in the 30-minute charts for those two, as they look the most likely to give clean retest entries today.
FTSE 100 Analysis
The FTSE finished last week around the 10497 area and continues to trade close to the recent highs. However, the overnight risk-off move changes the short-term picture slightly. The FTSE does have one advantage compared with the DAX and the US indices, and that is its heavy exposure to oil and energy companies. With crude oil pushing sharply higher this morning, the likes of BP and Shell may provide some support to the index. That could mean the FTSE holds up better than the other equity markets today. The political backdrop in the UK also remains in focus, but for now the global geopolitical situation is likely to dominate the open.
- What I'm Watching
- The first area I am interested in is whether the FTSE can hold the recent support zone following the initial sell-off.
- If we see an early drop followed by buyers stepping back in, then I think we could see the usual FTSE recovery trade develop.
- However, if the market starts breaking support and forming lower highs, then I would be much more cautious about trying to buy the dip.
- Trading Plan
- I am neutral to bearish initially.
- The ideal long setup would be an early sell-off into support followed by a strong bullish reaction.
- I do not want to blindly buy the first dip this morning.
- Let the market prove that buyers are still there first.
- If support breaks cleanly, then selling a failed bounce may actually be the better setup.
DAX 40 Analysis
The DAX looks more vulnerable than the FTSE this morning. Higher energy prices are a much bigger concern for the German economy and the renewed surge in oil is likely to weigh on sentiment towards European industrial stocks. The DAX finished last week around the 25067 area and has already shown signs of struggling to extend above the recent highs. With the broader risk-off move overnight, I think there is a decent chance we see sellers test the recent support levels this morning.
- What I'm Watching
- I will be watching the first bounce very closely.
- If the DAX opens lower and then struggles to recover, that would suggest sellers remain in control.
- A series of lower highs on the shorter timeframes would strengthen the bearish case.
- However, the DAX has been extremely resilient recently, so I would still be cautious about chasing shorts directly into support.
- Trading Plan
- My preference today is to sell failed rallies.
- If we get an early bounce into resistance and buyers cannot push through, I would be looking for short setups back towards the morning lows.
- If the DAX manages to reclaim the overnight losses and hold above resistance, then the bearish view would need reassessing.
- For now though, the DAX looks like the weaker European index.
S&P 500 Analysis
The S&P 500 finished last week strongly and gained more than 1% over the week, helped by another recovery in technology and AI-related shares. However, US futures are lower this morning as the market reacts to the latest escalation in the Gulf. The biggest problem for the S&P is oil. Higher oil means renewed inflation pressure, and that has already pushed bond yields and the dollar higher. Markets are now increasing the probability of another Federal Reserve rate rise later this year. That is not particularly helpful for growth stocks.
- What I'm Watching
- The first thing I want to see is how the market reacts around the recent breakout area.
- If buyers defend that zone, then this could simply be another geopolitical dip that eventually gets bought.
- But if the S&P breaks support and starts forming lower highs, I think we could see a deeper retracement develop.
- The US CPI and PPI data later this week will also be extremely important given the renewed inflation concerns.
- Trading Plan
- I am bearish short term but still bullish on the bigger picture.
- That means I am not interested in chasing the market lower after a large sell-off.
- The better short setup would be a bounce into resistance followed by rejection.
- Alternatively, if the S&P sells off into support and forms a strong reversal pattern, I would still consider the long side.
- Today is about confirmation.
Gold Analysis
Gold is probably the most interesting market this morning. Normally, an escalation in the Middle East would be expected to send gold sharply higher. Instead, gold has fallen more than 1% and is trading around the $4060 area. The reason is the inflation trade. Oil has surged, inflation expectations have increased and traders are now pricing a greater chance of another Federal Reserve rate rise. That has pushed both the dollar and Treasury yields higher, which is weighing heavily on gold. If gold cannot rally during a major geopolitical escalation, then buyers clearly have a problem.
- What I'm Watching
- I am watching for a recovery into resistance this morning.
- If gold bounces but struggles to hold above resistance, I think sellers may step back in fairly quickly.
- The $4000 area is likely to become increasingly important if the current weakness continues.
- Trading Plan
- My preference is to sell rallies.
- I would rather wait for gold to recover into resistance than chase the move lower.
- If buyers suddenly reclaim resistance and gold starts responding properly to the geopolitical situation, then I would reassess.
- For now though, the price action remains bearish.
Final Thoughts
Today looks very different from the relatively calm conditions we saw towards the end of last week. The renewed escalation in the Gulf and uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz have put oil firmly back at the centre of the market.
Higher oil means higher inflation expectations. Higher inflation expectations mean higher bond yields and a greater chance of further interest rate rises......And that is creating pressure across the equity markets and gold this morning.
The FTSE may hold up slightly better because of its exposure to the oil majors, but I still want to see buyers confirm support before looking for longs.
The DAX looks more vulnerable to the energy shock and is my preferred index for selling failed rallies.
The S&P 500 remains bullish on the bigger picture, but the short-term momentum has shifted and a deeper pullback is certainly possible.
Gold remains the most surprising market. The fact that it is falling despite the geopolitical escalation tells me that the rates and dollar story is currently more powerful than the safe-haven trade.
Interested in how to start trading the FTSE 100? Frequently Asked Questions on Spread betting
Recommended Broker for trading - MT4/5, web and mobile
IC Markets - offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!
Join my Membership for Trading Tips, Support and Resistance Levels with Live Trading
If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX40, Gold and the S&P500, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.
Keep up to date with new website posts, free sign up below
