Technical analysis for 7th October 2026
The market picture has improved in one important respect: European bond yields have started to retreat and equities have responded positively. But the US 10-year is back around 5.30% this morning, so the wider bond problem is not resolved.
Meanwhile, Brent has rebounded to roughly $101.65 as a Gulf of Mexico storm and renewed Saudi-Houthi tensions revive supply concerns. Wall Street, however, continues to shrug off these risks: both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached fresh records yesterday.
The 10,545–555 region is particularly attractive for shorting today because it contains today's pivot and the overhead 30-minute moving-average structure..
A stronger rally into 10,585–600 would arguably produce an even better short for a repeat of yesterday's trade. R1 is around 10,593, while the daily chart has substantial resistance around this region. A rejection there gives me a SELL 10,585–600, stop around 10,620, targeting 10,550 → 10,500 → 10,456.
On the downside, 10,499 S1 is the critical level. I wouldn't sell straight into it. If 10,499 breaks, trades towards 10,485 and then fails to recover 10,500, I'd consider SELL 10,492–500, stop around 10,518, targeting 10,475 → 10,456 → 10,420/404.
There is also a legitimate countertrend long. If price flushes through S1 towards 10,485–490, rapidly reclaims 10,500 and holds it, I'd consider BUY 10,500–505, stop around 10,480, targeting 10,525 → 10,547 → 10,575. With daily RSI still only 36, short-covering rallies can be quite sharp.
Finally, a break of 10,593 followed by a successful retest would change today's picture substantially. I'd then favour a recovery towards 10,620 → 10,646 → 10,680/688 rather than continuing to sell rallies.
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