Technical analysis for 24th July 2026
Today's tone has shifted decisively to risk-off following last night's reaction to the first wave of Big Tech earnings. Although Alphabet delivered exceptional cloud growth and Tesla met several operational expectations, investors focused on the continued surge in AI capital expenditure. At the same time, Brent crude has moved above $100 per barrel after further attacks on Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, pushing global bond yields sharply higher and reviving fears that central banks may need to tighten policy further. Asian markets sold off heavily overnight, led by South Korea and Japan, while European markets are expected to open cautiously ahead of today's PMI data.
The market tone has become a little more defensive than yesterday. The FTSE remains in an overall uptrend despite a pullback, the DAX has slipped back below key moving averages, Gold is correcting after failing at resistance, and the Nasdaq continues to be the weakest index. The S&P 500 is sitting in the middle of its range and could determine market direction later today.
FTSE 100 - Neutral Bullish
- The FTSE remains the strongest index overall despite yesterday's profit-taking.
- Technical picture
- Still trading above both the 10 EMA and 25 EMA.
- Pullback has respected the rising trend structure.
- RSI remains comfortably above 50.
- Price is holding near the middle of the rising channel.
- The trend remains positive. Pullbacks into the 10,580–10,540 region would still be viewed as buying opportunities while above the 25 EMA.
DAX 40 - Bearish
- The DAX has rejected yesterday's recovery and is back below the short-term moving averages.
- Technical picture
- Price has fallen below both the 10 EMA and 25 EMA.
- Trading below the Daily Pivot.
- Still inside the descending channel.
- RSI has slipped back below 50, showing weakening momentum.
- Unless buyers reclaim the Pivot early in the session, rallies into the 24,900–25,000 area are more likely to attract sellers.
Nasdaq 100 - Bearish
- The Nasdaq remains the weakest chart.
- Technical picture
- Large bearish candle yesterday.
- Small recovery candle today is still below the Pivot.
- Trading beneath both moving averages.
- Price remains inside the falling channel.
- Only a move back above the Pivot and 10 EMA would improve the outlook. Until then, rallies remain selling opportunities.
S&P 500 - Neutral
- The S&P is holding up better than the Nasdaq but has lost some momentum.
- Technical picture
- Trading just under the Pivot.
- Sitting around the 25 EMA.
- Still within the broader rising channel.
- Momentum has flattened
- Today's price action around the Pivot is important. A move back above it would favour buyers, while rejection could see another test of S1.
Gold - Neutral / Bearish
- Gold has started to correct after failing to hold above resistance.
- Technical picture
- Bearish reversal candle after a strong rally.
- Back below the Daily Pivot.
- Testing the 10 EMA.
- Momentum has rolled over from recent highs.
- Gold is entering a correction phase. I would prefer to wait for a stronger bullish reversal at support before looking for fresh longs.
The key theme today is relative strength divergence. The FTSE100 continues to outperform and remains the best-looking equity index. The Nasdaq is still the weakest and remains under pressure. The DAX40 has lost yesterday's momentum and has turned bearish again unless it can quickly reclaim the Pivot. The S&P 500 is balanced and likely to follow whichever direction U.S. technology stocks take, while Gold appears to be in a short-term correction after its recent advance.
We finish the week with the market facing its biggest test in several weeks. Yesterday's earnings from Alphabet and Tesla were strong in many respects, but investors weren't interested in looking backwards. Instead, the focus shifted firmly towards the future.
The market has become increasingly uncomfortable with the sheer amount of money being committed to artificial intelligence infrastructure. Alphabet announced another significant increase in capital expenditure while Tesla also highlighted continued heavy investment. The question investors are now asking is no longer whether AI is transforming businesses. It's whether the returns will justify the spending. That concern alone would have been enough to pressure equity markets. Unfortunately, it arrived alongside another major escalation in the Middle East.
Brent crude has now pushed above $100 per barrel following fresh attacks on Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea. That has driven bond yields sharply higher, strengthened the US dollar and reignited fears that inflation could remain elevated for much longer than markets had hoped.
Today's session therefore feels very different from earlier in the week. Rather than chasing momentum higher, traders are now asking whether this is the beginning of a deeper correction.
FTSE 100 Analysis
Despite the broader risk-off backdrop, I still believe the FTSE is relatively well positioned. The reason remains unchanged. Higher oil prices provide a direct benefit to some of the index's largest constituents, particularly Shell and BP. That should continue providing support even if broader equity markets remain under pressure. However, if bond yields continue climbing aggressively, financial conditions will tighten and eventually weigh on the wider market.
- What I'm Watching
- The key question today is whether buyers defend yesterday's support.
- If they do, I think the FTSE could once again outperform many overseas indices.
- I'll also be watching the energy sector closely.
- If crude remains above $100, energy stocks are likely to continue attracting buyers.
- Trading Plan
- I still prefer buying controlled pullbacks rather than chasing strength.
- If yesterday's support breaks convincingly and the market begins producing lower highs, I would become much more defensive.
- For now, the FTSE still looks like the strongest European index.
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