Technical analysis for 21st October 2025
A decent bull Monday yesterday as last weeks jitters were shaken off saw the bulls manage to get it to 9440 overnight, helped by a positive Asian session. We may well therefore see the usual pattern of a bear Tuesday today as profits get banked. Initially we are looking at a small pull back to the 9415 area and a test of the daily pivot and the 30m 200ema.
If this holds then we should see a subsequent rise towards the 9460 area where we have the R1 level for today. The 2h chart remains bullish of course and has both Hull MA and coral support at the 9370 level, so should the bears take it this low then a long off these supports still remains valid and worth taking. With hindsight at the year end we may well look back at this time as the start of the Santa Rally...
Market Bias
- Bias: Mildly bullish while above 9,400
- Intraday Range Expectation: 9,380 – 9,480
- Preferred Trade: Buy dips near 9,410–9,420 for a move to 9,460–9,480
- Risk Note: A close below 9,400 on the 30-min chart would invalidate the bullish bias and suggest a re-test of the lower channel.
If the bulls were to break above the 9460 level then they will be aiming to break above R2 as well at 9485, as that would then bring 9500 back into play and get the bullish sentiment really going. 9700 remains possible! 9532 is R3 but that may be a bit of a big ask today, especially as we have the top of the 10d Raff channel at 9490 as well. Talking of Raff channels note that the longer term 20d channel continues to head upwards.
On the other hand, if the bears were to break 9370 today and really get a bear Tuesday going then look for a test of 9344 S2 and possibly even 9320 S3. That said I am more inclined to go with the 9370 holding... let's see!
DAX40
For the German index I am looking at the daily pivot being tested and holding at 24200 this morning, to set up a rise to test the 24387 key fib before some more downside from there. Again the 2h chart is bullish with the Hull and coral at 24020 should it get very bearish so look for a bounce at this area. If the bears break the pivot then that may well be possible, though we also have the key fib and S1 at 24050 - so a bit of a range for that support zone. Upside above the 24387 would likely be the 24489 R1 level and we also have the top of the 10d Raff here.
S&P500
And it's a similar picture here with the daily pivot being first support at the 6720 level, with the 2h Hull MA below that at 6680 should the bears take it below the pivot. Look for a bounce off this if it's seen, as it's also the 200ema on the 30m chart. Resistance is at the R1 and the key fib 6767 level so look for a short here, with the 6793 R2 above that. That might be a big ask for today though.
Good luck today.
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