Technical analysis for 29th October 2025
FTSE100 Market Bias
- Daily Trend: Strongly bullish within an ascending red channel, continuing the recent 4-day rally from 9,400.
- Short-Term Momentum: Cooling slightly around the daily pivot after a sharp rise.
- Bias: Still bullish, but momentum appears to be flattening → likely range-bound consolidation early today before possible afternoon upside continuation.
S&P 500
Bias: Mildly Bullish
- The index continues its up-trend, with recent new highs and broad participation.
- Momentum remains positive and the trend structure intact.
Caveats:
- The trend is somewhat extended; valuations and positioning suggest increasing caution.
Interpretation:
- Buy-on‐dips is the preferred posture. Resistance could limit upside near the next pivot; a break below key support would flip the bias to neutral or slightly bearish.
DAX 40
Bias: Neutral to Mildly Bullish
- The DAX has shown strength relative to peers and remains in an upward trend for the year, but weka on the shorter timeframe.
- Technical indicator summaries lean “Buy” or “Strong Buy” in many longer‐term frames.
Caveats:
- The upside may be limited unless key resistance is broken; macro risks (inflation, Germany/EU growth) still loom.
Interpretation:
- A bias toward buying supportive dips is appropriate; however, treat any moves toward resistance with caution and avoid chasing aggressive breakouts without confirmation.
We finally got the 9700 level yesterday and the bulls managed to defend well with the bears failing to make any meaningful reaction at this key level stick. As such, the bulls remain firmly in control and we may well see a rise towards the 9760-9770 area this morning where we have the key fib and the R2 level - if they can break R1 at 9736 initially.
If the bulls were to break 9770 today then somewhat amazingly, it brings 9800 into view, along with R3 at 9818 - that said that feels a bit of a big ask but given the current stock market exuberance its not beyond the realms of possibility!
Generally therefore looking for an early push up from the bulls. For the bears meanwhile, they will be looking to break the 9690 daily pivot level as that would then see 9653 S1, but then there is stronger support just below this at 9630 - we have the key fib and the 30m 200ema both at this level and should it get that low then I would like to see a bounce here. Look for an early hold of the daily pivot level though as I am expecting a rise dip rise to play out today.
The main event today will be the FED rate decision though the market has pretty much already priced in a 25bps reduction. BoE - over to you!
Despite being priced in, we may well continue to get some more buy the rumour sell the news play out today, as the S&P500 looks to put in an early rise also.
S&P500
The bulls will be looking to defend the 6900 level and we may well see a push towards the 6940 level where we have R2 and the key fib. This would make a decent short level for a run down to the daily pivot at 6895 which is the main support for today. The 2h chart remains bullish as does the daily uptrend, so the bulls are still in control. If they were to break 6941 then 6966 is R3 and the next level to look for. Below the daily pivot though and look for S1 at 6876.
DAX40
The most pessimistic of the 3 with resistance at the daily pivot 24261 and the 2h Hull MA 24278. As such, we may see the bears drive this down initially towards the support at the 24100 level - S2 and the key fib here so a decent level for a bounce. If the bulls break above the 24280 level then there is the potential for a test of the 24411 level where we have the key fib, and with R2 at 24425 just above this it may well cap any rises.
Good luck today.
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