Technical analysis for 21st January 2026
FTSE100 Bias
- Bullish Trend, Short-Term Pullback
- Structure:
- Still in a strong rising channel
- Recent candles show a pullback into EMA / Pivot support
- RSI holding above 50 = trend still healthy
- Bias:
- Buy-the-dip bias while above channel support
- Key Levels:
- Support: 10,080 → 10,000 (S1 / channel base)
- Resistance: 10,250 → 10,315 (R2 / channel top)
S&P500 Bias
- Bearish Bias
- Structure:
- Clean lower-high rejection at channel mid
- Price is below EMA 10 & 25 and holding under Pivot
- RSI near 40 = downside momentum active
- Bias:
- Bearish continuation unless price reclaims 6,900+
- Key Levels:
- Resistance: 6,900 – 6,950 (R1 / channel mid)
- Support: 6,780 → 6,700 (S2 / S3 zone)
DAX40 Bias
- Neutral → Bearish Bias
- Structure:
- Price has broken down from the upper channel and is now trading below the fast EMA and daily pivot
- RSI is sub-50 and weakening → momentum loss confirmed
- Price is sitting near the lower channel / S1 zone
- Bias:
- Sell rallies / Bearish intraday unless price reclaims Pivot & EMA
- Key Levels:
- Resistance: 24,850 – 25,050 (Pivot / R1 zone)
- Support: 24,400 → 24,000 (S2 / channel base)
FTSE100 Roadmap
- Below 10,200: Rallies are sells
- At 10,030–10,000: Watch for buyers
- Below 10,000: Daily trend weakens → deeper pullback risk
FTSE100 Today’s Likely Path
- Early: Attempted bounce into 10,200–10,230
- Mid-session: Rejection → test of 10,100
- Later: Either
- Base & bounce from 10,030–10,000
- Or acceptance lower → continuation pullback
The S&P tumbled well from the 6870 resistance level, as did the FTSE100 which dropped down to the 10055 daily support level once it broke below the 10100. That held though and we have had a decent rally back towards the 10150 area. Inflation figures have just come out and show an uptick, mainly driven by airfares, but does lend some weight to further rate cuts. Bad news is good news.
Davos is still right and centre with Trump flying in today to continue stirring things up. That said, initially its looking like we may well see a rise and dip play out on all three markets and we are still in short the rallies mode for the moment, The 2h charts are still bearish as you would expect.
We are starting the day on support at the daily pivot at the 10112 level and we may well see the bulls try and drive this up towards the 10200 area. However we have decent resistance at the 10175 level with both R1 and the key fib here, and I would like to see the bears appear here as well as some profit taking from the 10050 bounce. We now also have the red 2h corral in play, currently at 10200 as I write this but falling steadily. That may well coincide with the 10175 area later on today.
Above 10175 then look for the 10200 level, and we have R2 at 10252 above that - feels a bit too optimistic to expect that but with Trump and Davos speeches in play, its not impossible!
Support wise, if the bears break 10100 initially then a retest of yesterday's low at 10050 is next, with the daily support still showing at 9943 below that. The daily Raff channels continue to head upwards on the FTSE100 though to give the bulls some hope of a push higher. If we do resume the uptrend then I am still looking at a potential test of 10500.
For the S&P500 I am thinking that we will get an initial rise towards the R1/key fib at 6865ish, and we also have the 30m 200ema here, so a decent level to try a short. 6850 is the Hull MA resistance on the 2h chart as well and would be the first test since it went bearish so adding resistance to this zone.
Likewise a rise and dip for the DAX40 with a test of the R1 and key fib at the 24840 area before another dip back. As it's also short the rallies mode, then this level looks like it will get a decent reaction.
Good luck today.
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