Technical analysis for 9th July 2026
We head into Thursday’s session with a more defensive tone than we’ve had over the last week. Yesterday’s market move was driven by a fresh geopolitical jolt after renewed US-Iran tension pushed oil sharply higher, revived inflation concerns and knocked risk appetite across the board. The FTSE 100 had its worst day since May, the S&P 500 lost ground, and the market suddenly looks a lot less comfortable with the idea of a smooth summer grind higher. Reuters reported that the breakdown in the Iran ceasefire framework reignited worries about supply disruption and inflation, sending equities lower while bond yields rose.
For me, that changes the feel of today quite a bit. I’m not flipping outright bearish on the indices yet because the broader trend still hasn’t fully broken, but I do think this is now a “be patient, let the dust settle, and make the market prove it still wants to buy dips” type of session. Gold, interestingly, hasn’t behaved like a clean safe haven because higher oil and renewed inflation fears have also pushed rate expectations back up, which has kept pressure on bullion. Reuters noted this morning that gold was trading near a one-week low as the inflation implications of the conflict outweighed its haven appeal.
FTSE 100 — Neutral to slightly bullish
- Bias: uptrend intact, but it’s in a pullback phase
- FTSE had the cleaner bullish look earlier in the week, but the last two candles show a clear pullback from the top half of the rising channel.
- It’s now sitting close to the EMA25 / lower part of the current channel leg, which is an important decision area.
- So the bigger structure is still bullish, but the short-term daily momentum has cooled.
- Neutral to slightly bullish while above 10,490–10,410
- If FTSE can reclaim 10,547 pivot and hold, I’d favour a push back toward 10,630
- Lose 10,409 and the daily chart starts looking more corrective
- Bottom line
- Bias = still upward overall, but today it’s more “wait for confirmation” than “buy immediately.”
DAX40 — Neutral to slightly bullish
- Bias: stabilising after the selloff, but not yet cleanly strong
- DAX sold off hard into 8 July, but today’s candle is a small green stabilisation candle after testing down into the EMA25 / lower-mid channel support area.
- Price is still above the EMA200 and still inside the broader rising channel, so the bigger daily structure hasn’t broken.
- That said, it’s now trading below the daily pivot and below the mid-channel resistance zone, so it’s not a strong momentum long yet.
- Neutral to slightly bullish while above 25,000 / EMA25 area
- If DAX can reclaim 25,116 pivot and hold above it, I’d lean for a grind back toward 25,411
- If it loses 25,000 / 24,850 area, I’d expect a deeper pullback and the bias goes neutral-to-bearish
- Bottom line
- Bias = cautious long-on-strength, not aggressive long from the open.
Nasdaq 100 — Bearish
- Bias: still the weakest index chart
- Nasdaq is still printing a weak sequence of candles and remains below the EMA25 / EMA200 cluster.
- Price is also sitting under the key horizontal resistance around 29,500, which keeps the daily structure heavy.
- Today’s candle is basically flat/indecisive so far, but it’s happening after weakness, not after strength.
- Bearish while below 29,500
- If it rallies into 29,450–29,550 and stalls, I’d still favour sell-rallies
- Only a proper reclaim of 29,550 / EMA cluster would improve the daily picture
- Bottom line
- Bias = bearish, still the cleanest short-bias chart of the group.
S&P 500 — Neutral to slightly bullish
- Bias: uptrend intact, but momentum has cooled
- S&P remains inside its rising channel and is still holding above both the EMA25 and EMA200.
- The last few candles show pullback / digestion rather than trend failure.
- Today’s candle is small and indecisive around the pivot / channel support region, so the daily structure is still constructive, but there isn’t much immediate momentum.
- Neutral to slightly bullish while above 7,439–7,481
- Best case for longs is a hold above pivot and then push back toward 7,527
- A break under 7,439 would weaken it and open a deeper retrace
- Bottom line
- Bias = still buy-the-dip overall, but less clean than FTSE and not a breakout chase.
Gold — Bearish
- Bias: daily structure still soft
- Gold continues to trade under a falling higher-timeframe structure, with price below the broader descending trend line and beneath the heavier resistance band overhead.
- The last three candles are all weak/soft and price is sitting around the pivot without showing a strong reversal candle.
- The EMA structure is not bullish here and the market still looks like it’s in a corrective rally within a broader weak chart rather than a fresh uptrend.
- Bearish while below 4,134 / 4,190
- If it loses 4,021, I’d favour continuation lower
- Only a strong reclaim back above 4,134 would improve the chart meaningfully
- Bottom line
- Bias = bearish, with rallies still looking more sellable than buyable.
Practical daily bias for today
- Long-bias / buy-the-dip candidates
- DAX if it reclaims and holds above 25,116
- S&P while above 7,439–7,481
- FTSE only if it holds 10,409 and reclaims pivot
- Best short-bias markets
- Nasdaq below 29,500
- Gold below 4,134
FTSE 100 Analysis
The FTSE took a proper hit yesterday and, of the four markets, it’s the one where the tone has shifted most noticeably. That doesn’t automatically mean the uptrend is over, but it does mean the easy “buy every dip” environment is no longer something I’d take for granted after such a sharp risk-off move.
The complicating factor with the FTSE is that higher oil can actually help some of the heavyweight energy names, which may cushion the downside a little compared with more growth-led markets. But that support needs to show up in price. If it doesn’t, then yesterday’s sell-off starts to look more like the beginning of a broader reset rather than just a one-day wobble.
- What I’m Watching
- Whether the FTSE can stabilise above yesterday’s low rather than immediately extend the sell-off.
- Any early rebound being sold versus buyers actually stepping back in.
- Whether oil-related strength in the big energy names helps the index recover intraday.
- Trading Plan
- For today, I’m more cautious on the FTSE than I have been over the last week.
- If we get an early flush lower followed by a strong recovery and buyers start reclaiming key intraday levels, then I’d still be open to long setups. But I’m not interested in blindly buying the first dip after yesterday’s damage. I want price to prove that support is holding before getting involved.
DAX 40 Analysis
The DAX still looks better structurally than the FTSE, but yesterday’s risk-off move was still enough to take some of the shine off it. The broader higher-low pattern hasn’t fully broken yet, so I’m not looking to become aggressively bearish here, but I do think today’s session is about whether the DAX can defend support rather than whether it can immediately break to fresh highs.
If European markets steady and the DAX starts holding retracements again, then I’d still favour the long side on pullbacks. But if it opens weak and every bounce gets sold, then the market probably needs more time to digest the geopolitical shock.
- What I’m Watching
- A controlled test of support rather than a full breakdown.
- Whether buyers step in on any early weakness.
- A recovery back through intraday resistance to suggest the dip has actually been absorbed.
- Trading Plan
- I still prefer the DAX to the short side only if support gives way cleanly.
- Otherwise, my base case is still that the better trade comes from buying a pullback if price stabilises and confirms it. This is no longer a session where I’d want to chase a move in the first 15 minutes — patience matters more today.
S&P 500 Analysis
The S&P 500 still sits in a broader uptrend, but yesterday’s reaction was a reminder that this market is vulnerable when oil and inflation expectations suddenly reprice. Reuters noted that the S&P ended lower after the Iran agreement was declared “over”, with the market reacting to the possibility that higher energy prices could complicate the Fed outlook again.
So for me, the short-term bias is still “buy retracements” in principle, but only if those retracements actually hold. The danger today is assuming yesterday was a one-off and then trying to catch a falling knife if US futures stay heavy. I’d rather see the market absorb the bad news first.
- What I’m Watching
- Whether futures can hold above yesterday’s panic low.
- Any early dip being bought rather than accelerating lower.
- Whether the market can rebuild without relying entirely on tech leadership.
- Trading Plan
- I still lean bullish on the S&P in the bigger picture, but today I want confirmation before doing anything.
- If futures sell off into support and then form a proper reversal structure, I’d be open to buying the retracement. If instead we get a weak open and a series of lower highs, I’d leave it alone rather than forcing the bullish view too early.
Gold Analysis
Gold is the interesting one today because, in theory, the geopolitical backdrop should be helping it. In practice, it hasn’t worked that cleanly because the market is also worrying that higher oil means stickier inflation and therefore higher rates for longer. Reuters reported this morning that gold slipped towards a one-week low as renewed US-Iran hostilities lifted inflation concerns and pushed traders to price in a greater chance of another Fed hike.
That’s why I’m not treating gold as a straightforward safe-haven long right now. It still feels messy. It can absolutely bounce on headlines, but unless buyers can sustain a move and reclaim resistance properly, I think it remains more tactical than directional.
- What I’m Watching
- Whether gold can hold above recent support after the latest drop.
- Any bounce into resistance that starts stalling.
- Whether buyers can actually build momentum or whether rallies keep fading.
- Trading Plan
- For now I’m neutral-to-slightly bearish on gold.
- If it bounces into resistance and struggles to hold gains, I’d still be more interested in fade setups than chasing longs. If, however, the market starts reclaiming resistance and holding above it, then I’d soften that view quickly because the geopolitical backdrop could still support a stronger recovery if yields stop doing the damage.
Final Thoughts
For today, I think the key is not to assume yesterday’s move was automatically a buying opportunity. It might be — but the market needs to prove it first. The broader trend in the equity indices hasn’t completely broken, so I’m not suddenly turning aggressively bearish, but the tone has definitely changed and I think today is much more about confirmation than conviction.
The FTSE100 has taken the biggest technical knock in the short term, the DAX40 still looks relatively constructive if support holds, and the S&P 500 remains bullish in the bigger picture but now needs to show it can absorb this inflation/geopolitical shock. Gold remains awkward because the safe-haven bid is being offset by higher-rate fears, which makes it harder to trust either side without clearer price action.
Good luck today.
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