US inflation data – buy the rumour sell the news | 7315 7360 resistance | 7277 support

US inflation data - buy the rumour sell the news | 7315 7360 resistance | 7277 support


FTSE 100 trading prediction and analysis for 12th July 2023

The FTSE 100 closed Tuesday 0.12pc higher at 7,282.52, while the FTSE 250 midcap index ended up 0.62pc at 18,140.09.

European shares ended higher on Tuesday amid investor hopes the U.S. Federal Reserve was nearing the end of its interest rate hiking cycle and as China extended some policy measures to support its battered real estate sector.

Asian shares nudged higher and the dollar was at a two-month low on Wednesday ahead of crucial U.S. inflation data that will help gauge whether the Federal Reserve is at the end of its aggressive rate hike policy.

FTSE 100 trading prediction and analysis

The bulls are definitely fighting back a bit now, and a move through the 7325 area today will likely see a rise towards the 7360 daily resistance level. That is also just below the 7375 R3 level. That may well tally with the S&P500 rising to its 4461 resistance level and then dropping off a bit to retest the previous break out area at 4430 and where we have the daily pivot for today.

Initially today then a rise to test the 200ema and R1 level, and possibly the 7327 key fib, before dropping back to test the daily pivot at 7277 looks likely to start with.

The 2h chart remains bullish and has the 7210 area locked in as support, coincidentally just above the 7206 daily support level. Should see a drop down to this level then a long here is still worth a go.

Today's big news is of course the US inflation date, which is largely forecasted to show a drop from last month. That's out at 1330 so expect some volatility then. We may well see some buy the rumour, sell the news kicking in today. A weak Wednesday and then some strength Thursday and Friday once again.

Below the 7277 daily pivot then the 7210 area is the main likely next area, though we have 7257 as S1 and 7218 as S2 prior to that. Both the Raff channels are now heading down as well following the drop off the 7600 area.

Should the bulls break the 7330 are then I would expect to see that 7360 level, and then above that a retest of the 7460 25ema on the daily.  It's quite possibly that the worm has turned on the S&P500 now and the bulls are gaining the upper hand again. Would kick start that July seasonality bullishness as well! The climb from 4380 is certainly going well! 4460 is the recent high and the level that we dropped off from, so the key level that the bulls will need to break. We may well see a retrace off this level again.

So, rise dip rise I am thinking and watch for the news at 1330.

Good luck today.

Interested in how to start trading the FTSE 100? What is it, how does it work and how do you do it? Read more here

Recommended Broker for FTSE 100 trading and how to start trading

IC Markets - offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!

Membership, Trading Tips and Live Trading

If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.

What you get

  • Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE100, DAX40, Gold and S&P500.
  • Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
  • Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates

Keep up to date with new content, free sign up below with just your email address

Day trading for beginners - Join today and get:

  • Daily detailed analysis before the market opens
  • Detailed trade plans for the FTSE100, S&P500, Dax40 and Gold
  • Email updates during the day
  • Live trading room open all day
  • Telegram chat room groups
  • Help and support

Membership is £59.99 a month. A results spreadsheet in Excel can be viewed here