Technical analysis for 3rd December 2025
FTSE100 Bias
- Bias Today: Slight Bearish → Neutral if 9,720 breaks
- FTSE is sitting below pivot, below intraday EMAs, and has lost upside momentum.
- Reasons for bearish bias:
- Price below pivot (9,720).
- 30-min EMAs are sloping downward.
- Price rejected R1 yesterday at 9,742.
- Price likely wants to test S1/S2 at 9,680 → 9,662.
- Bullish only if:
- FTSE reclaims 9,720, then pushes toward 9,742.
- Bearish if:
- FTSE breaks 9,675, then accelerates toward 9,662 → 9,645.
- Trade Bias for Today:
- Sell rallies below 9,720
- Buy only at strong support (9,680–9,662)
- Avoid longs in the middle zone (9,695–9,710)
S&P500 Bias
- Bias Today: Strong Bullish
- S&P continues to grind up in a low-volatility bullish trend.
- Reasons:
- Price above all EMAs.
- RSI elevated but stable → typical grind.
- US mega-cap tech leading (NVDA, MSFT, META, AAPL).
- Every dip small and bought aggressively.
- Bullish if:
- Price holds above 20-day EMA.
- Bearish only if:
- The index breaks below 50-day EMA (not close yet).
- Trade Bias for Today:
- Buy dips (best at EMA20)
- Breakout continuation longs
- No shorting unless a strong reversal candle forms
DAX40 Bias
- Bias Today: Bullish → Buy dips
- DAX remains the strongest major index and continues to outperform FTSE and Europe overall.
- Reasons for bullish bias:
- Above all major moving averages on daily.
- Intraday structure continues making higher lows.
- Very quick dip-buying behaviour.
- No major resistance until a new high test.
- Bullish if:
- Above 23800 zone.
- Weakness only if:
- Below 23700, which would open a deeper pullback.
- Avoid shorting unless S&P turns negative
The bulls attempt to break away from 9700 yesterday was rebuffed at 9740 so that remains the line in the sand of the moment with the daily resistance level of 9760 above that still in play. Should we see a rise towards that area today then a short here is worth a go. Generally the US is looking more bullish as the S&P500 tries to pull away from the 6800 area and that in turn should help pull the FTSE100 higher too.
9742 is R1 to start with and we would have a double top there initially, so the bulls will certainly need momentum to break above this, as its also the Hull MA on the 2h. That would be the second test of that moving average and the more it gets tested the more likely it is to break.
Initially we have support at 9692 with the 30m 200ema here, and also the zone that has been holding as support all week - 9680 held yesterday - but below this then we may well see a slide down to the 9660 level and with the key fib at 9652 as well as daily support at 9658 then I would like to see this hold for a decent bounce. That said, we may well see the bulls just come straight out the blocks and pull away from the 9700 level.
At 13:15 we have US ADP news out, with a reduction to 4k forecasted. That may well get a bearish reaction initially, though after that a buy the bad news scenario as it may help rate cuts! Thats followed at 1500 by ISM Services PMI with another reduction forecasted.
Generally today I am thinking that we will see rises initially for the FTSE100, DAX40 and the S&P500, with the daily pivot holding across the board as initial support.
Good luck today.
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