Technical analysis for FTSE 100 for 3rd October 2023
Asian shares fell on Tuesday after Federal Reserve officials cemented the view that U.S. interest rates are likely to remain elevated for some time, while the yen slid to near a one-year low, putting traders on watch for intervention from Japanese authorities.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 1.36% to their lowest since Nov. 28, 2022. Japan’s Nikkei fell 1.5%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index was 1% lower. Chinese markets were closed for the week because of the Golden Week Holiday.
U.S. Federal Reserve officials said that monetary policy will need to stay restrictive for “some time” to bring inflation back down to the Fed’s 2% target.
Fed funds futures traders are pricing in a 26% chance of a rate hike in November, and a 45% likelihood of an increase by December, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.
U.S. crude fell 1.04% to $87.90 per barrel and Brent was at $89.73, down 1.08% on the day.
FTSE 100 technical analysis for today, 3rd October 2023
Certainly wasn't a bull Monday yesterday but was good to get short at the high on the Dax40 for a decent haul to start the month. The FTSE100 has dipped slightly below the 7500 and is currently testing the daily support at 7480 which may help it put in an initial kick up this morning. We also have the daily coral (green) at 7470 lending some support to this area to start with today as well.
Below the 7468 level then the bears would be aiming for at least 7450 for a test of R1, and then 7394 S2 below that. However, I wouldn't be surprised if the bulls put in a shift today, especially as the S&P500 is just sat on its daily 200ema at 4279 still and holding that relatively well.
For the bulls, then initial resistance is at the daily pivot at 7541 and an early test of this would fit well, and also tie in with a test of the now bearish Hull MA on the 2h chart - resistance from that currently at 7561 at the time of writing but dropping down. Depending on how quick we were to rise that could drop down to 7550 and get tested around there, linking in with the pivot.
Above that then the 7580 level is the 30m 200ema and the key fib, along with the new red 2h coral so again, shorting this level is probably worth a go as well. 7597 is also R1 though a 100 point bounce after the declines yesterday might be pushing it - though you never know! Oil has dropped off a bit, and chatter yesterday mooting a drop down to $70 a barrel.
I have a feeling that the Nasdaq and the S&P500 may well pull things up today....
Good luck today.
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