Technical analysis for 7th July 2026
We head into Tuesday’s session with the broader tone across equities still constructive after another positive US close overnight. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both pushed higher on Monday, led by renewed strength in the semiconductor space, while expectations for a near-term Fed hike remain relatively contained after last week’s softer payrolls data. That keeps the backdrop supportive for risk assets, even if some of the major indices are starting to look a little stretched in the short term.
For me, that makes today less about chasing strong opens and more about seeing whether the indices continue to respect support on any intraday weakness. The FTSE and DAX still look constructive, the S&P 500 remains in a broader uptrend, and Gold has steadied after its recent rebound — although it still feels like the least straightforward of the four markets.
FTSE 100
- Bias: bullish continuation / still one of the better long setups
- FTSE is still holding a clean rising daily channel.
- Price remains above the rising EMA25 and comfortably above the EMA200.
- Unlike Nasdaq, this market is still respecting its trend structure very well.
- The last couple of candles are more of a pause / consolidation near the highs rather than outright reversal.
- My bias
- Bullish above 10,615
- If FTSE dips into the 10,615–10,572 area and holds, I’d still favour longs over shorts
- It’s not as explosive as DAX, but structurally it still looks very solid
DAX40
- Bias: bullish while above support, but momentum is fading
- Trend structure is still up: price remains above the rising EMA25 and well above the EMA200.
- It’s still trading inside the rising channel, but today’s candle is a red pullback candle after tagging the upper half of the channel.
- RSI is still elevated, so DAX is strong overall, but it no longer looks like an easy “chase higher” market.
- My bias
- Bullish above 25,710 / pivot area reclaim
- If it loses 25,710, I’d expect a deeper pullback into 25,600–25,500
- So for today I’d call it bullish-to-neutral, with a preference to buy dips rather than chase highs
Nasdaq
- Bias: sell rallies / weakest equity index on the board
- This chart is still the weakest of the index group.
- Price is below / around the pivot and sitting under the EMA25, with a clear run of lower daily closes since the 30 June high.
- The recent candles are small and soft, which usually tells me there’s no real buying urgency.
- Relative to DAX / FTSE / S&P, Nasdaq is clearly underperforming.
- My bias
- Bearish while below 29,558 / 29,721
- If it pops into the pivot / R1 zone and stalls, I’d still favour the short side
- Only a clean reclaim of 29,558–29,721 would improve the picture
S&P 500
- Bias: bullish trend, but not as clean as FTSE
- The broader daily trend is still up: price is above the EMA25 and EMA200, and the structure remains a rising channel.
- Today’s candle is a small red pullback near the pivot / upper channel area, which looks more like a pause than a full reversal.
- SafeZone / divergence panel has cooled off, which suggests momentum may be flattening a bit, but the trend is still intact.
- My bias
- Bullish while above 7,491
- Best case is a dip toward 7,491–7,478 that holds, then continuation higher
- I wouldn’t call it a short market yet unless it starts closing below 7,491
Gold
- Bias: Neutral to slightly bearish
- Gold had a decent rebound off the lows, but once again it’s failing around the pivot / resistance zone.
- It’s still trading under the broader falling 200 EMA / higher resistance structure, so I don’t think this is a clean trend-up market yet.
- The chart still looks more like a countertrend bounce inside a broader messy/down structure.
- My bias
- Neutral to slightly bearish while below 4,166 / 4,203
- If it loses 4,127, I’d expect another test of 4,091
- I’d need to see a proper reclaim of 4,166–4,203 before turning more constructive
Practical session bias for today
- Best long-bias markets
- FTSE100 – bullish while above 10,615
- S&P500 – bullish while above 7,491
- DAX40 – bullish while above 25,710, but I’d want dip entries rather than chasing
- Markets I’d be more cautious with
- Nasdaq – still looks like the best sell-rallies candidate
- Gold – still a range / fade strength market rather than a clean trend long
One-line summary
- DAX: bullish but fading
- Nasdaq: bearish
- S&P: bullish
- FTSE: bullish
- Gold: neutral to slightly bearish
FTSE 100 Analysis
The FTSE still looks constructive and, for me, remains one of the cleaner index charts on the board. The market continues to hold its higher-low structure well, and unless that changes, I still think the better opportunities are likely to come from buying weakness rather than trying to fade strength. The main thing I’ll be watching today is whether the FTSE can absorb any early profit-taking after the recent run and then rebuild. If it can, I’d still favour another leg higher rather than a deeper retracement.
What I’m Watching
- An early pullback into support rather than a sharp reversal.
- Buyers defending the most recent breakout area.
- A move back through the overnight high to re-establish intraday momentum.
Trading Plan
- I still prefer buying pullbacks rather than chasing the open.
- If the FTSE dips into support and stabilises, I’d be looking for long setups back in the direction of the trend. If support gives way cleanly and the market starts losing its higher-low structure, then I’d step aside and wait for the next proper reset.
DAX 40 Analysis
The DAX remains technically constructive and still behaves like a market that wants to be bought on weakness. It hasn’t always been the easiest market to chase at the highs, but on retracements it continues to look healthy, and for now I still think the path of least resistance is higher unless we see a clear break in structure. As with the FTSE, I think the ideal setup today would be a controlled pullback into support followed by evidence of buyers stepping back in. If we get that, I’d still favour continuation higher.
What I’m Watching
- A modest retracement into support rather than immediate trend failure.
- Whether buyers continue to defend higher lows.
- A push back towards recent highs if European sentiment stays firm.
Trading Plan
- The plan remains to buy dips while the bullish structure stays intact.
- I’d rather wait for the DAX to come back into value than chase it after a fast move. As long as higher lows continue to hold, I still think pullbacks are opportunities rather than warnings.
S&P 500 Analysis
The S&P 500 remains bullish overall and Monday’s session was another reminder that the underlying bid is still there, particularly in tech after chip stocks bounced strongly. The market is still benefiting from the idea that the Fed may not need to turn more aggressive after the softer jobs data, and that’s helping keep the broader uptrend intact. That said, I do think the S&P is becoming a little more selective after the recent run. We’re no longer in the easiest part of the move where every dip is instantly obvious. So for today, I’d be looking for cleaner retracements into support rather than forcing trades in the middle of the range.
What I’m Watching
- Whether futures can hold above the recent support band.
- Any shallow dip being bought rather than accelerating lower.
- Signs of another grind higher rather than a sharp reversal.
Trading Plan
- I still favour buying retracements, but I’d be more selective here than on the FTSE or DAX.
- If the S&P gives a controlled pullback into support and buyers respond, I’d still lean long. If price turns choppy and directionless, I’d be happy to leave it alone rather than overtrade a market that’s already had a strong run.
Gold Analysis
Gold has steadied after its recent rebound, but I still think this is the market that needs the most caution. Prices eased again overnight as traders waited for the Fed minutes, and while the softer US jobs data helped Gold recover from the worst of the recent sell-off, the market still hasn’t fully convinced me that it’s ready for a clean trend move higher. Reuters noted that gold slipped back below a two-week high as traders waited for more clarity on the Fed’s policy direction. So for me, Gold is no longer a straightforward sell like it was earlier in the move, but nor is it yet a market I’d want to chase aggressively on the long side. It still feels more tactical than directional.
What I’m Watching
- Whether Gold can hold above the recent recovery lows.
- Any shallow pullback being bought rather than rejected.
- Whether buyers can sustain momentum through resistance rather than just produce another bounce.
Trading Plan
- I’m neutral-to-slightly bullish on Gold today, but only if support continues to hold.
- If Gold pulls back and buyers keep stepping in, there may be room for another push higher. If instead the recovery starts stalling back under resistance, I’d be cautious about forcing longs and would reassess whether it slips back into a more neutral or even bearish intraday structure.
Final Thoughts
For today, I still think the cleaner opportunities are likely to be in the equity indices, particularly if we get some early weakness that can be bought rather than a straight-line move from the open. The FTSE and DAX both remain technically constructive, and while the S&P 500 still looks bullish overall, I’d be a little more selective there simply because the market has already had a strong run and may need to work harder for the next leg higher.
Gold has improved from a tactical point of view, but I still don’t think it’s as clean as the indices. The rebound has been good enough to soften the bearish view, but not yet strong enough for me to call it a high-conviction trend-up market. For now, I’d treat it as a market that needs confirmation rather than anticipation.
As always, the key is to let price confirm the idea rather than trying to predict every move. Let the market come into your levels, stay disciplined with risk, and if today turns into a slower consolidation session rather than a trend day, there’s no harm in being patient and waiting for the better setup.
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