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FTSE100 live outlook prediction analysis for 20th September 2022
Despite the bank holiday yesterday we had a bit of a bull Monday, helped by the late rally in the US as the S&P500 gained a decent amount of ground to test the 3913 resistance level where we have the 200ema on the 30m chart, and the key fib for today.
As such the various 2 hour charts are bullish, now so we may well get a dip rise dip play out today, though to start with its going to be choppy ahead of the Fed, BoE and other central banks and the mooted rate rises – markets waiting to see how large the increases are.
Initial resistance is at the key fib and R1 level to start with today, at the 7305 area, so if we get an initial rise to here to start with then we may well see a pull back from here. That would also align with the S&P500 stalling at the 3915 resistance levels as well.
Above this the bulls will be looking for 7330 R2, then more likely 7354 which is the next daily level of note. 7384 is then the daily coral line and has also just changed to red (bearish trend) so should we see this level then a short here is worth a go.
For the bears, they will be looking to drive this down to the pivot and the 30m coral at least to start with as we have decent support here – 7254 is the level to watch for support today. A break of this though and then we will likely see the Hull MA at 7223, and 7193 possibly, if they break Fridays low at 7206.
I am thinking that we may well see the 7250 level hold though on any dip down. The US bulls will certainly be keen to build on the rise yesterday, though with a potential bear Tuesday back drop they will have their work cut out.
S&P500
So, bulls looking to defend any dip down to the 3880 level as we have initial support here, and then the bulls will definitely want to defend Monday’s low at 3830 below that. A push past 3915 will likely lead to the 3935 R1 level, and should they get past this then the short term bearishness we have seen will likely end for a few sessions and a rise back up towards 4000 may well play out. To start with its choppy ahead of the FOMC and the interest rate rises (and BoE as well).
2h support is at 3838 so should we see that line tested soon then may well be worth a long here too. That said, be cautious with holding longs for too long as the second half of September is usually bearish.
Good luck today.
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