Technical analysis for FTSE 100 for 3rd July 2025
The FTSE100 and S&P500 both bounced well yesterday but from just below the key support levels and we may well see a bit of buy the rumour sell the news today as we have the US markets closed tomorrow, and NFP out at 1330. At 0930 this morning we also have some UK centric PMI data out, so expect a bit of chop around then.
Initially I am thinking that the daily pivot level at the 8786 will hold as support and we will see a charge from the bulls to push back above 8800 and possibly as high as 8840 where we have the key fib and the R1 level for today. This is also the top of the 20d Raff channel.
The 2h chart is weakly bearish at the moment, as the price has moved above the Hull MA resistance overnight. 8780 is also the 200ema on the 30m chart to lend more support to this area.
If the bears were to break 8780 then a slide down to the 8744 S1 level, and tying in with yesterdays low may well play out, and I expect that the bulls will be keen to defend this. With the US closed tomorrow we are likely to see most of the action play out today.
If the bulls break above the 8841 level then we still have the chance of a rise to test the 8890 area, along with R2 today at 8876. This8876 area is the top of the 10d Raff channel which is now rising after the bounce yesterday and the flirtation with 8800 this week. Generally it's looking positive once again for today though the NFP news could well scupper that!
Both the UK composite and services PMIs are forecasted for small beats of previous, while NFP is forecasted at 111k versus 139k previously and unemployment rising 0.1% to 4.3%
For the DAX40 today then a rise towards the key fib at the 23931 level looks possible and should get a reaction as this is also the red 2h coral. Just prior to this we have the Hull MA on the 2h at 23885 and we are almost on that as I write this. If the 23930 level gets a reaction the bears will be aiming to push it down toward the 23761 daily pivot level, which should in theory hold. Below that 23614 key fib is the next support, with S1 and the bottom of the 10d also a possible hold at 23670. S2 is the bottom of the 20d Raff channel as well as 23525 if it gets really bearish!
For the S&P500 its all eyes on NFP and a buy the rumour sell the news day may well play out, with daily pivot support at 6213. Resistance is at 6257 with the key fib and R2 here, and R1/Hull MA resistance prior to that at 6241. If the bears were to break below the daily pivot then 6198 S1 and the round number should see a bounce.
Good luck today.
Interested in how to start trading the FTSE 100? Frequently Asked Questions on Spread betting
Recommended Broker for trading - MT4/5, web and mobile
IC Markets - offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!
Membership, Trading Tips, Support and Resistance Levels with Live Trading
If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX40, Gold and the S&P500, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.
Keep up to date with new website posts, free sign up below
