FTSE 100 technical analysis for 4th August 2023
Will the FTSE 100 climb today with NFP Friday news?
The FTSE 100 closed in the red, although reversed losses recorded earlier in the trading day. The blue-chip index finished down 0.43pc at 7,529.16, while the FTSE 250 midcap index climbed inched up 0.11pc to end at 18,833.65. It comes after the FTSE 100 dropped to a two-week low earlier Thursday amid nervousness in global markets ahead of the Bank of England’s rate decision.
Asian shares rose on Friday, while the dollar pulled back from a one-month peak as investors took stock of the slew of U.S. economic data that showed a resilient labour market ahead of a crucial non-farm payrolls report due later in the day.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was 0.46% higher after dropping 2.3% on Thursday. Japan’s Nikkei was choppy and last up 0.1%.
Overnight, U.S. stocks closed little changed after a choppy trading session, as investors weighed rising Treasury yields with the latest batch of economic data and earnings. Data showed the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefit rose slightly last week, while layoffs dropped to an 11-month low in July as labour market conditions remain tight.
FTSE 100 technical analysis - Will the FTSE 100 climb today with NFP Friday news?
NFP Friday news - Dip and rise in the end yesterday as the BoE did go for another rate rise as we race towards the 5.5% level, and possibly 6% in due course. However, the market turned a bit more optimistic as the S&P500 defended the 4500 level. We may well see some more strength come in today, if the bulls can continue to defend.
The FTSE100 bulls will be keen to push this up and away from the 7500 level and with 7516 as the daily pivot and now green 30m coral support area, I would like to see this hold today. We may well get a small dip to start with, as we have 7562 as resistance from the fib level to start with.
Higher resistance is at the 7595 level where we have the 20oema on the 30m and the R1 level, as well as another test of the red 2h coral line here.
Above this obviously it's 7600 for the round number and then 7641 for R2 - not sure they will add a 100 points again today off the low, but you never know..... it did need the flush down in order to build a base for more upside but it might need further consolidation first.
Support wise, 7516 looks good to start with as mentioned, but below this then 7460 is the bottom of the 20day Raff for today, with a further test of the 7435 level possible if it gets bearish.
The S&P bulls will be keen to break above the 4536 level as that looks fairly key, and would open up a rise towards the 4547 R2 level.
On the news front it is of course NFP (July) today, along with the US unemployment rate for July - NFP is forecasted at 200k, with unemployment to remain the same at 3.6%. That's out at 1330 so we may well have some volatility then.
So, possibly a bit more bullish today. Keep an eye on those key levels in the table and have a good trading session.
Enjoy the weekend too!
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