Technical analysis for 5th January 2026
FTSE100 Bias
- BIAS: STRONG BULLISH (LEADER BREAKOUT)
- State
- Price has cleanly broken above 10,000 and is holding.
- Firmly inside a steep rising daily channel.
- Daily RSI ~60+ → bullish, not yet exhausted.
- 30-min structure shows tight consolidation above the daily pivot (~10,010).
- This is acceptance above a major psychological level, not rejection.
- Bias
- Trend: Strong bullish
- Intraday: Bullish continuation / flag
- Risk: Shallow pullbacks only
- FTSE has transitioned from follower to leader.
S&P500 Bias
- BIAS: STRONG BULLISH (GLOBAL DRIVER)
- State
- Above daily EMA20 & EMA50.
- Early-January flows typically favour trend continuation.
- No lower-high structure or volatility expansion.
- Risk appetite clearly ON.
- Bias
- Trend: Strong bullish
- Intraday: Sideways → grind higher
- Invalidation: Only on daily close below EMA50
- S&P continues to anchor global risk-on sentiment.
DAX40 Bias
- BIAS: BULLISH CONTINUATION
- State
- Trend remains higher highs / higher lows.
- Above all key daily EMAs.
- January liquidity returning → continuation favoured.
- No distribution or topping structure visible.
- Bias
- Trend: Bullish
- Intraday: Buy dips > chase
- Risk: Momentum pauses, not reversals
- DAX remains structurally strong, supported by FTSE & S&P strength.
Simple FTSE100 Roadmap for Today
- Above 9,980:
- Buy dips, target 10,050 → 10,130
- Above 10,050:
- Momentum long toward 10,200+
- Below 9,980:
- Stand aside or scalp shorts to 9,900
Well off we go for another New Year and we are starting bullishly with the 10000 level being recaptured having risen above that during the Santa Rally in December. We saw a drop off just below the 10060 level over the festive break, which was our key level prior to the break and we may well see that tested today, and a reaction again. We also have the R1 level at 10067 today, while 10054 is the key fib. Ultimately, if the bulls were to break that level then we look to be on track for a rise towards the 10230 area....... 10137 R2 is R2 splitting those areas, and if we were to see that later today then a short here is worth a go as well.
Initial support to start with is at the 9982 daily pivot level and so far markets have largely ignore the US military action which bodes well for some more upside today and a bull Monday to start the year. Below this though and the bears will be aiming to drive it down to the 9920 area where we have the key fib and the S1 level at 9912. I am not expecting it to get this low really and would like to see the pivot hold for a test of the 10067 R1 and top of the 10d Raff channel.
The S&P500 will also be keen to defend the daily pivot and is also still in buy the dip mode, with the support level at 6860 today. That would also close the small gap from Friday, and a climb from here could get as far as 6905 key fib, just above R1 at 6893. The 30m S&P500 chart is actually bearish to start with, so a drop down to start with would fit well. Initially the bulls may struggle around that 6900 level though as we have the red 2h coral here, along with that R1 and key fib in this area.
Similar picture for the DAX40 with 24665 resistance initially and then 24732 key fib above that. Support is at the daily pivot also, at 24556 and we also have the green 30m coral here, so a test of this and a hold and bounce would be good for the chart pattern. Below this then 24500 is the 30m 200ema, and 24408 key fib below that. Watch the pivot for a reaction, as we also have a bullish 2h chart to start with, and the Hull MA support at 24587 - so an overshoot of this and then a snap back could work out well.
Good luck today.
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