New month money but 7690 resistance to start | 7720 7745 above | 7648 support

New month money but 7690 resistance to start | 7720 7745 above | 7648 support

Technical analysis for FTSE 100 for 1st March 2024

The FTSE 100 closed higher on Thursday underpinned by a positive batch of earnings from the likes of Haleon and Howden, setting the main index up for monthly gains, but a jump in Drax did little to offset monthly losses on the mid-cap index

The FTSE 100 index closed up 0.1%, ending the second month in the year with a 0.2% gain. The exporter-heavy index however, underperformed Europe's STOXX 600that hit a record high earlier in the month and notched a 1.9% gain in February.

Top gainer on the FTSE 100 was Howden Joinery with a 7.0% surge after the kitchens products supplier said it saw "encouraging" revenue growth in 2024.

The more domestically exposed FTSE 250 closed up 0.2% with Drax Group, the UK's largest source of renewable electricity, jumping 11.2% after posting a 66% jump in annual profit and raising its dividend.

The mid-cap index underperformed the large-cap FTSE index in February, down 1.2% as worries of domestic slowing growth and uncertainty about the timeline for interest rate cuts hurt risk appetite.

US consumer prices increased at their slowest rate in nearly three years, according to the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, keeping a June interest rate cut for America on the table.

The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 2.4pc in January, the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis said, in the smallest year-on-year increase since February 2021. It followed a 2.6pc advance in December.

Japanese and Australian shares hit fresh record highs on Friday as a key U.S. inflation reading came in as expected, a relief for investors that had looked for a June rate cut, while mixed data from China bolstered hopes for more policy support.

Europe is set to open higher, with both EUROSTOXX 50 futures up 0.5% and FTSE futures gaining 0.6%. U.S. futures , gained about 0.2%.

The Nikkei index jumped 1.9% to hit a fresh all-time high, extending a surge of 7.9% the previous month when it breached levels last seen in 1989. Australia's resources-heavy shares rose 0.6% to a new record high.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan  also gained 0.2%, although it was still set for a weekly loss to 0.4%.

FTSE 100 technical analysis for today, 1st March 2024

Good end to February for the trades and now we start March with it all looking pretty positive. The trends table is completely bullish which is pretty rare so I expect the new month money kick up will play out a bit more today. Buying the dip yesterday afternoon on the Dax40 for the new month pump worked well too.

So onto today and being Friday, one to be a bit more risk off for. We have Euro inflation news out at 10am, and US ISM manufacturing at 15:00, both likely to cause a bit of movement.

As we are approaching the various R1 levels we may well see a dip rise dip play out today, and I am looking at the daily pivot, coral and 30m 200ema support area at 7650 to be tested and also to hold. I think the bulls may well try and break above the 7720 resistance level as well, though that might be a more concerted effort next week.

Initial resistance is at the 7705 key fib level and round number, along with 7690 for R1, though an opening kick up to test R2 and the recent high at 7719 may well materialise. If it did then a drop back from here to test the pivot before resuming the upwards path would fit pretty well. That would also tie in with the possible route on the S&P500 and Dax40.

Above the 7720 then we have the top of the 10d Raff at 7744 and that could well see some profit taking ahead of the weekend if it gets there.

Support wise, then 7650 as mentioned looks pretty key with S1 below that 7618. 7643 is also the Hull MA on the 2h to give some weight to that 7650 level. I would therefore like to see this hold.

Below the 7620 level then 7575 would most likely be next up though I am not thinking it will get that negative today (hopefully that hasn't jinxed it!)

So a few key levels in play and to keep an eye on. Good luck and have a great weekend.

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