Technical analysis for 1st July 2026
The second half of the year gets underway with plenty for traders to focus on. Quarter-end flows are now behind us, allowing markets to return to trading the technical picture ahead of this week's key US employment data. Equity indices remain resilient despite recent volatility, while Gold continues to struggle as investors favour risk assets over traditional safe havens.
FTSE 100
- Bias: Bullish
- Still the strongest index.
- Although today's candle is pulling back slightly, it remains within a healthy uptrend.
- Bullish factors
- Higher highs and higher lows remain intact.
- Price above both moving averages.
- EMA10 still rising.
- Trend channel continues to point higher.
- RSI remains comfortably above 50.
- Trading plan
- Continue buying pullbacks rather than chasing highs.
- The area around 10,470–10,500 remains an attractive buy zone.
DAX40
- Bias: Bullish
- The DAX continues to improve
- Technical picture
- Trading above both the EMA25 and EMA200.
- Holding above the rising trendline.
- Yesterday's breakout remains intact.
- RSI remains above 50.
- Price is consolidating just beneath 25,000 after a strong rally.
- Trading plan
- Look to buy any pullback into 24,900–24,850.
- A break above 25,000 should target 25,140 and potentially 25,275.
Nasdaq 100
- Bias: Bullish
- This chart has strengthened considerably.
- Bullish factors
- Strong bullish reversal from last week's lows.
- EMA25 has turned higher.
- Price has reclaimed the daily pivot.
- Trading near the upper boundary of the falling channel.
- Momentum has improved significantly.
- The next challenge is the descending channel resistance around 30,300.
- Trading plan
- Remain bullish while above 30,000.
- Buying pullbacks is preferred unless price is rejected decisively from the upper channel.
S&P 500
- Bias: Bullish
- The S&P continues to recover.
- Technical picture
- Strong sequence of higher lows.
- EMA10 has crossed back above EMA25.
- Trading above the daily Pivot.
- Bullish divergence has already played out.
- Still trading inside a larger falling channel, but momentum favours buyers.
- Trading plan
- Prefer buying dips above 7,430.
- A move through 7,510 could accelerate towards 7,550–7,590.
Gold
- Bias: Bearish
- Gold remains the weakest chart.
- Technical picture
- Lower highs continue.
- Lower lows continue.
- Trading beneath both moving averages.
- Channel still pointing lower.
- Price remains below the Pivot.
- There is still no convincing reversal signal.
- Trading plan
- Continue selling rallies into resistance.
- Only a sustained move back above 4,075 would begin to weaken the current bearish structure.
Other setups for today
- Best Long
- FTSE 100
- Buy pullbacks into 10,470–10,500
- Targets: 10,585 → 10,660 → 10,705
- FTSE 100
- Second Long
- Nasdaq 100
- Buy dips above 30,000
- Targets: 30,300 → 30,447 → 30,690
- Nasdaq 100
- Third Long
- DAX40
- Buy pullbacks above 24,900
- Targets: 25,000 → 25,140 → 25,275
- DAX40
- Best Short
- Gold
- Sell rallies into 4,000–4,075
- Targets: 3,950 → 3,885
- Gold
Overall, today's higher-timeframe picture continues to favour equities over gold. The FTSE remains the leader, while the Nasdaq is approaching a key technical test at the top of its descending channel. A clean break above that channel would be a significant bullish development for US indices.
FTSE 100 Analysis
The FTSE 100 continues to respect the broader uptrend, with buyers stepping in on recent pullbacks. While the index may experience some early profit-taking after recent gains, the underlying structure remains constructive with higher highs and higher lows still firmly intact. Financial stocks continue to provide support, while easing inflation expectations are helping improve sentiment across UK equities.
What I'm Watching
- Early weakness into key support levels.
- Buyers defending yesterday's lows.
- A break above the overnight high opening the door for another move higher.
Trading Plan
- I'm still looking to buy pullbacks rather than chase breakouts. As long as support continues to hold, the path of least resistance remains to the upside.
DAX 40 Analysis
The DAX remains one of the strongest-performing European indices and continues to outperform on relative strength. Momentum remains positive, although after recent gains I wouldn't be surprised to see a period of consolidation before the next leg higher. The trend remains your friend until price proves otherwise.
What I'm Watching
- Pullbacks into moving average support.
- Buyers returning on any early weakness.
- A sustained move through recent highs confirming bullish continuation.
Trading Plan
- Continue looking for buying opportunities on retracements. Counter-trend shorts remain lower probability while the market continues making higher lows.
S&P 500 Analysis
The S&P 500 remains well supported despite some rotation between sectors. The broader market continues to show healthy participation, with buyers consistently stepping in whenever price retraces. Attention now turns towards upcoming US economic data, which could provide the next major catalyst. Until then, technicals remain the dominant driver.
What I'm Watching
- Consolidation above support during the European session.
- Buyers defending the US open.
- Momentum building towards another test of recent highs.
Trading Plan
- Buying retracements remains the preferred strategy. Patience is key—let price come into your areas rather than forcing entries.
Gold Analysis
Gold continues to trade under pressure as demand for safe-haven assets remains subdued. While short-term bounces are certainly possible, rallies continue to attract sellers and the overall trend remains negative. Unless sentiment changes significantly, I continue to favour selling strength rather than attempting to catch a bottom.
What I'm Watching
- Any rally into resistance zones.
- Failure to hold above intraday resistance.
- Continuation towards recent swing lows.
Trading Plan
- Look for selling opportunities after confirmed rejection from resistance. A sustained move back above recent highs would be required before reassessing the bearish outlook.
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