Technical analysis for FTSE 100 for 11th March 2024
The UK's benchmark FTSE 100 ended the week slightly lower led by losses in aerospace and defence stocks, while the pound had its best week since November after softer U.S. data indicated the Federal Reserve might be close to cutting interest rates.
The internationally focussed FTSE 100 was down 0.4% on the day and logged its third straight week of losses, lagging its European and U.S. counterparts, which rose to all-time highs on the back of technology stocks in the week.
A no-surprise annual budget statement, however, drove the midcap FTSE 250 indexhigher by 1.3% for the week. It was up 0.1% for the day.
The pound gained 0.18% to $1.2826, after hitting its highest since August against a weakening dollar after data showed U.S. job growth accelerated in February but the unemployment rate rose and wage growth slowed.
Asia
Asian share markets sputtered on Monday while the dollar looked vulnerable ahead of a reading on U.S. inflation that could hasten, or delay, the start of global rate cuts.
The yen edged higher as Reuters reported a growing number of Bank of Japan policymakers are warming to the idea of ending negative rates this month on expectations of hefty pay hikes in this year's annual wage negotiations.
Data released on Monday showed Japan was not, in fact, in recession after economic growth was revised up to an annualised 0.4% for the December quarter.
Tuesday's U.S. consumer price index (CPI) report for February is forecast to rise 0.4% for the month and keep the annual pace steady at 3.1%. Core inflation is seen rising 0.3%, which will nudge the annual pace down to the lowest since early 2021 at 3.7%.
FTSE 100 technical analysis for today, 11th March 2024
The bears have the upper hand still and the various 2h charts are bearish after Friday's decline. The ASX200 had a bearish Monday as did the various Asian markets, which doesn't bode well for a bull Monday for us today. In fact, shorting the rallies today across the board is probably the preferred play. The bulls have failed to hold onto 7700 and having finally had that test of 7715 we have fallen steadily since.
In actual fact the bottom of the 10d Raff channel is looming into view at 7590 as well and with daily support at 7588 then we may well see a test of that soon, and quite possibly a bounce.
Initially today we may see a kick up towards the daily pivot at the 7670 level and a test also of the 2h Hull MA at 7673. If that plays out then we may well see the bears appear here and a leg down at that point. It's also all eyes on inflation news tomorrow in the US, so we may well see some profit taking over the next 24 hours ahead of that.
Above the daily pivot then 7700 is still in play and is just above R1 for today, with the key fib then at 7716. Feels like that might be a big ask for today though.... but do bear it in mind.
Support wise, then initially we have the 7627 S1 level that has held so far overnight, and then the key fib at 7619. Below that though then the 7602 S2 level and then the levels mentioned above at 7590 would likely see a reaction. We are only 40 points above that to start with so quite possible that the bears will take it down to here today.
7576 is then the 200ema on the daily and is key support that would need to hold if we are to get the bullish March. As mentioned previously, the seasonality favours that but it will need the bulls to step up!
So rise and dip (and then possibly a rise again) looks to be the order of the day today.
Good luck!
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