Technical analysis for FTSE 100 for 24th February 2025
The market reaction has been relief at the election of the relatively mainstream CDU/CSU conservatives in Germany's election, with DAX futures now up 1.4% after a slow start. That may well translate into bit of bull Monday across the board, also helped by the FTSE100 pulling away from our 8620 support level that it tested last thing on Friday. If that does play out then buy the dip today once again, with the daily pivot and 30m green coral area at the 8644 level look to be the first key support.
The bulls will certainly be looking to defend this, as a break of that will likely see a slide down to the 8601 S1 level and an attempt to break both 8620 and the round number. However, it will be a challenge for the bears as we also have the bottom of the 20d Raff channel at 8622, which is also still rising, as well as the US bulls most likely wanting to fight back after Friday's slide.
Initially we should drop off the R1 level that we are just testing as I write this, at the 8674 level, so this is the first line in the sand that we will need to see broken if we are to get the bull Monday. Above this then the 8690 has the 30m 200ema and the 2h coral, with 8715 above this being R2 and the key fib.
I would like to see a rise to this 8715 area today and then some profit taking here - its 100 points up from the low on Friday so psychologically a decent profit point, plus it looks like decent resistance.
Should it get really optimistic and break above this then the 8747 R3 level is the next one of note, and would certainly reverse last week's declines. The 10d Raff is now heading downwards following that drop off the 8840 area, so the bulls will be keen to defend the 20d Raff channel bottom to try and arrest that decline.
Support wise if the bears were to break the 8601 level then 8571 S2 is the next one to look for with an outside chance of a test of S3 and the bottom of the 10d Raff at the 8528 level. I don't expect it to get this low today though....
For the Dax40, initial resistance is at the 22565 2h coral, and we may well see a dip and rise play out on that too as the dust settles on the election result. Todays result may well be a forerunner to the UK elections in 4 years time with a similar move back to centre right. Support wise the bulls will be looking to defend the 22300 level and the 30m coral level, but below the Hull MA support level at 22360. It feels like the bulls will be keen to defend any dips today.
The S&P500 will also be keen to defend dips, and a possible gap close at 6015 may well then see a bounce. That level is also the bottom of the 10d Raff channel.
Good luck today.
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