Technical analysis for FTSE 100 for 19th March 2025
8700 is key to start with this morning as we have the 2h Hull MA here, along with the round number and the bulls have defended this well since Monday's rise. As such the daily chart has gone bullish again with the 8666 level now the 25ema support and certainly looking stronger than the US markets at the moment!
If the bulls do defend the daily pivot at 8704 to start with then we may well see a rise and dip play out as buy the rumour sell the news plays out ahead of the Fed today and BoE tomorrow, despite expectations of no changes.
Below the daily pivot then the 8640 2h green coral will be the bears target, despite the bounce off 8680 yesterday. We could get a double bottom there, as it's also S1 for today, but I am thinking that a possible overshoot to the S2 level at 8655 is likely if the bears do gain control. We have a cluster of support here, with the key fib, 200ema and just above the 2h coral so I would like to see this hold today.
8631 is then S3 and links in with the coral more accurately but the bulls will be trying to prevent it sliding that low. A lot will depend on the federal banks, and also the geopolitical back drop playing out - a bit of progress on Ukraine, but then the Middle East flare up again.
On the way to a possible test of the 8750 area we have R1 at 8729 and also a double top here with the recent high in hours, as well as overnight last night. As such the bulls will need momentum to push past that today.
The S&P500 2h chart has gone bearish again and the 5624 level is resistance from that, but we have the potential first test of the green 2h coral at 5593 on the cards today. It will be interesting to see if they can defend this as that could well set up a decent bounce as we still need to test the daily 25ema resistance at 5789 currently. Both the Raff channels are heading down still so the bulls certainly have their work cut out but an end of March climb is distinctly possible.
The Dax40 has been a bit of a wild one this month as their political situation beds in. For today I am thinking a range between 23200 and 23520 may well be possible and again, buy the rumour sell the news rise and dip pattern may well play out on that.
Basically its all eyes on the Fed at 18:00 this evening and then the press conference at 18:30 - the latter likely to generate more volatility as traders look for clues on future rate movements.
Good luck today.
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