Technical analysis for FTSE 100 for 16th December 2024
Traditionally this week is the one that sees the "official" Santa Rally kick in as we have the end of year push. The S&P500 has on average risen 1.6% during the last bit of December. Will we see the run continue and a bit more upside to end the year? This week it's about the interest rates with the Fed expected to reduce slightly, though the BoE likely to remain as is.
On Friday the bulls managed to break above the 8310 level, but stalled at the 8334 instead, at which point it dropped off. Initially today we may well see a similar pattern with another test of the 8305 to start with, and as we have the 30m coral, daily pivot and 200ema all here, we may well see the bears have a go again for a drop down to the 8250 support area.
Above the 8310 then 8334 once again, and 8375 above that would likely be seen if the bulls were to break higher. A bull Monday is likely today, and if we get a drop down to the support then we will more than likely see the buy the dip crowd appear.
Above 8375, and I don't expect this today, then we still have the 8400 round number and 8460 above that in the distance. Since our rally to the 8300 area from 8000 it has certainly stalled a bit, and we have just been bouncing around this area for a while, more than likely awaiting a catalyst of some sort....
For the bears, below the 8250 level then 8225 is daily support below that with 8220 S3 also, and then 8203 for the green 30m coral. That said, I would like to see any test of the 8250 level hold today and a dip and rise play out.
8264 would also be another test of the 25ema and if we are to have a Santa Rally on the FTSE100 this area will certainly need to hold.
We have some PMI figures out at 0930 today as well so expect a bit of volatility then. The dividend is 5.17 this week too.
Good luck today, keep an eye on 8305, 8335 as resistance, 8250 as support.
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