Technical analysis for FTSE 100 for 27th November 2024
Decent reaction from the bears at the 8286 shorting level yesterday though the bulls have fought back and will be looking to push above that this morning. If they do so then that opens up a test of the 8315 level where we have the first key resistance for today with R2 and the key fib here, assuming they can push past the 8291 R1 level.
The 2h chart remains bearish for today as well with the Hull MA at 8315 also so a rise and dip to that level would fit the charts well to start with. It is also the last trading day for the US ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday so we may well see some profit taking later. The ceasefire announced yesterday will also help the bulls in the short term. Sustained peace or a chance to regroup and reload..... we shall see.
There are a cluster of US news releases at 1330 as well including GDP so expect some volatility then.
Support wise, then yesterday's low at 8250 is first up though a slight overshoot to the S1 level at 8241 may well happen, and that also links in with the 30m 200ema. Bigger picture the daily chart is now firmly bullish with he 8190 moving average support so a drop to this level and a hold would set up the Santa Rally well. If we do see that then a long here is worth a go.... I dont think we will drop that low today though but maybe later in the week.
Above 8315 and the bulls will be aiming for the 8341 R3 level, and ultimately a test of the daily resistance at 8375 which is now just above the top of the 20d Raff channel. It feels like the year end rally has kicked in though with the bounce off 7995 continuing so its still buy the dips on the bigger picture.
Support below the 8240 level is 8214 S2 and the key fib at 8206, (and the daily level at 8190 mentioned), with S3 also at 8191. I am thinking that we may well see the 8240 level hold today though, despite the bearish 2h chart.
US traders will certainly be watching the jobless claims and GDP news at 1330, both forecasted to have dropped slightly, for further clues as to US rate cuts. Doubt we will get a rate cut imminently here in the UK, and certainly not in December. It also looks likely that inflation in the UK will continue to trickle upwards over the next 6 months.
Good luck today, I am still running yesterdays short but stop is at breakeven and will just trail that if I does drop down again.
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