Technical analysis for 22nd December 2025
FTSE100 Bias
- BULLISH CONTINUATION (BUT EXTENDED)
- Market State
- Price ~9,890, holding above the daily pivot (~9,888).
- Firmly inside the rising daily green channel.
- Short-term structure shows bullish consolidation just below R1.
- RSI ~67 → strong momentum, starting to get stretched, but no reversal signal.
- Pullbacks remain shallow and bought.
- Bias Rules
- Bullish while above: 9,850–9,870
- Continuation trigger: Above 9,930
- First caution: Loss of 9,850
- Trend break only below: 9,775
- Bullish, but expect pauses/pullbacks rather than straight-line upside.
S&P500 Bias
- STRONG BULLISH (GLOBAL DRIVER)
- Market State
- Holding above Daily EMA20 & EMA50.
- Volatility remains suppressed → typical bull-market grind.
- No distribution or lower-high structure.
- Seasonal tailwinds also supportive (late December).
- Bias Rules
- Bullish while above: Daily EMA20
- Normal behaviour: Sideways → grind higher
- First caution: Loss of EMA20
- Bearish only if: Daily close below EMA50
- Trend-following longs favoured; dips are opportunities.
DAX40 Bias
- STRONG BULLISH (EUROPEAN LEADER)
- Market State
- Continues to show clean higher highs / higher lows.
- Above all key daily EMAs.
- No topping pattern; pullbacks are corrective.
- Strongly correlated with S&P strength.
- Bearish only on: Daily lower high + breakdown (not present)
- Buy dips preferred; strongest European index.
The start of the shortened week and we "usually" get a drift higher - gold however has shot out the blocks and broken all 3 resistance levels already and racing towards the 4440 20d Raff channel top. I am also preferring a buy the dip strategy for today on the 3 main indices, with a test of the daily pivots on each for today and then a slow climb higher looking like the preferred pattern.
For the FTSE100 this is at the 8863 level and if this holds as support we should get a rise towards the 9931 R1 level. Above this then the R2 at 9982 and 9976 daily resistance come into play and that area would then actually be worth a short. We could then set up for a bear Tuesday tomorrow, with a kick back up on Wednesday for Christmas Eve.
Below the daily pivot then a slide down as far as 8800 may play out, to test the key fib, 30m 200ema and the 2h coral which are all in this area. S1 is slightly above at 8812. That said, I am more inclined to go with the 8863 holding this morning.
The S&P500 also looks set for a decent start and has already gapped up, leaving support at 8838 and the 30m 25ema at 8830 so any opening dip to this area should see a bounce. If that happens then the bulls will be looking to test the 6863 R1 and preferably 6888 R2.
Similar picture for the DAX40 with 24337 key fib as initial resistance and 24242 as support. Lower support is at the 24100 level with the Hull MA on the 2h here and the coral. A test and hold of the pivot for a rise towards the 24385 R1 level would fit well, with 24480 R2 above that and also the top of the 10d Raff channel here.
UK GDP has just come in as forecast, growing by just 0.1% in the July-to-September period of this year, in line with the ONS initial estimate.
Good luck today.
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