Technical analysis for FTSE 100 for 26th August 2025
The bulls are starting the shortened week on the back foot and I am thinking that we may well get a rise and dip play out with a bear Tuesday kicking in later. That said I am also thinking that the bulls will be quick out the blocks and a retest of the 9360 resistance level is on the cards, as that is also now locked in as Hull MA resistance on the 2h chart, as well as also being a decent double top level with Fridays high.
Initial support is at the 9290 area which has held overnight and is the 30m 200ema level along with S3 at 9293. We may well see this hold today, however if the bears were to get it below this then the 9260 level is the bottom of the 10d Raff channel and the daily support as well, so a long here is worth a go. The bulls will be keen to defend the 9300 area to start off this week being the round number and S3.
Below 9260 and it will obviously look a lot more bearish and a drop as low as 9206 is possible though that does feel a bit pessimistic for today. The US will be keen to defend the drop I expect with the Fed governor being fired and not to make it look like chaos is afoot! That also lends weight to a rise and dip today.
On the upside, if the bulls were to break above the 9360 level (but I am not expecting it too though) then the 9400 level is next up and just above the top of the 20d Raff channel. I did mention in Fridays email that we could actually be on for a rise as far as 9700 and that still looks possible this year - the Raff channels continue to head up and if the US bulls were to close out the year optimistically then it should drag the FTSE100 up with it.
It's worth noting that as we had the bank holiday yesterday it may take a bit of time this morning to settle into its groove so stay cautious.
For the S&P500 the bulls are on the back foot but we have a bullish 2h chart with support at the 6420 level - interestingly also the level that we spiked down to overnight. As such this is initial support for today and a climb off this towards the 6463 R1 level would fit the charts, though there is some lower resistance at the 6450 daily pivot level. As such, shorting the rally today to this zone looks like the best play with a bear Tuesday again kicking in later. Below 6420 then the 6403 S3 level is next up and just above the round number - worth a long off this if seen.
The DAX40 meanwhile has initial support from the key fib and the S2 level at 24205 so we could see an initial defence of this. A break though and then look for S3 at 24036. Upside resistance is at the daily pivot initially at 24292, and then the 24444-24462 area where we have the key fib and the R2 level. Should we get a climb to this area then a short here is viable.
Good luck today
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