Technical analysis for 16th December 2025
FTSE100 Bias
- BIAS: BULLISH BUT PAUSING (BUY DIPS, NOT CHASE)
- State
- Price sitting around the daily pivot (~9,730s).
- Daily trend remains bullish inside the rising green channel.
- Short-term (30m / 2h) shows compression / pullback, not breakdown.
- Momentum positive but cooling → digestion phase.
- Bias Rules
- Bullish while above: 9,695–9,700
- Buy-the-dip zone: 9,705 → 9,695
- Continuation trigger: Above 9,770
- Bearish only if: 30-min close below 9,695
- Neutral-to-bullish, trade the range edges or breakout.
S&P500 Bias
- BIAS: STRONG BULLISH (GLOBAL DRIVER)
- State
- Firmly above daily EMA20 and EMA50.
- No confirmed distribution; volatility remains low.
- Typical bull-market grind behaviour.
- Bias Rules
- Bullish while above: Daily EMA20
- Normal behaviour: Range → grind higher
- Bearish only if: Daily close below EMA50
- Buy dips, avoid aggressive shorts.
DAX40 Bias
- BIAS: BULLISH (EUROPEAN LEADER)
- State
- Structure remains higher highs / higher lows.
- Above key daily EMAs.
- Pullbacks continue to be bought.
- Strong correlation with S&P strength.
- Buy dips preferred; trend continuation favoured.
FTSE100 Roadmap
- Above 9,700 → Buy dips
- 9,700–9,760 → Chop / range
- Above 9,770 → Breakout mode
- Below 9,695 → Bearish shift
The FTSE100 bulls are hanging in there, defending pretty well yesterday as the S&P500 and DAX40 both slid. The spectre of another rate cut is supporting things, even more so as the jobs market in the UK continues to weaken based on today's data which shows unemployment climbing to 5.1%, a 5 year high. The 2h chart remains bullish for the moment and the Hull MA at 9726 has held as support so far this morning. In a positive sign for the bulls both the Raff channels are heading upwards now. The slight spanner in the works for the bulls is that we are near the top of the 10d Raff resistance at 9770 for today, so they will need to break above this.
If they manage to do that then we may well be on for a break above the 9800 level and a test of the key fib. Above this then the R2 level at 9830 is next on the cards though that may be a bit optimistic for today.
If the bears were to break the 9726 level to start with then I am looking for a bounce at the 9700 area, in addition to it being the round number we also have the 30m 200ema here, and 9688 is S1.
We have a fair bit of key US data out at 1330 as well including NFP so I am expecting volatility then. We may well see a buy the rumour sell the news pattern for the S&P500 today, with an early rise towards the pivot at the 6811 before turning down. In light of that data thats due out - stay nimble!
Talking of the S&P500 I am looking at the 6754 S1 level holding as support today, and as its still in buy the dips mode then look for a decent bounce here.
Good luck today.
Interested in how to start trading the FTSE 100? Frequently Asked Questions on Spread betting
Recommended Broker for trading - MT4/5, web and mobile
IC Markets - offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!
Join my Membership for Trading Tips, Support and Resistance Levels with Live Trading
If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX40, Gold and the S&P500, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.
Keep up to date with new website posts, free sign up below
