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FTSE100 live outlook prediction analysis for 15th March 2023
Stock markets climbed and the dollar weakened against other currencies as traders also wagered that the worst of the turmoil was over following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB). The FTSE 100 in London closed up more than 1pc, while the S&P 500 rose almost 2pc amid a recovery in bank stocks a day after some smaller US lenders lost more than half their market value.
Jeremy Hunt will deliver his maiden Budget today against a backdrop of falling global inflation and lower predicted borrowing costs as pressure grows for him to abandon a tax raid. The Chancellor will pledge to deliver “long term, sustainable growth” a day after official figures showed US inflation fell in February, in a boost for hopes that a downturn in developed economies can be avoided.
Data showed price rises falling from an annual rate of 6.4pc in January to 6pc in February, cementing bets that the Federal Reserve will not have to step up the pace of rate increases to keep a lid on prices. Lower American borrowing costs are likely to bring down the peak for interest rates across the Western world.
An excellent bounce off the 7500 level yesterday saw the bulls shake off the worries and take it up to the 7640 level before faltering. I expect that we may well see a bit more buy the dip this morning ahead of the budget from the Chancellor at lunchtime today. Most of its already been in the papers so probably wont be any surprises – more tax, less spending, shut up and get back in your box will generally be the theme I expect…. 🙂
For today we may well see an initial drop down to the 7590 level where we have the 30m green coral (for the first test) and the daily pivot and I would like to see this hold for a rise back towards 7640, and ideally 7680 to test the 200ema on the 30m chart.
The Raff channels are both heading down fairly steeply now so the onus will be on the bulls to step up now. If the near term low cements at 7500 then we may well start to see some more optimism creep back in over the next few weeks, especially if we are past peak inflation and the SVB wobble delays further rate rises for the moment.
Below the 7590 level then 7540 is next up as we have S1 and the key fib here. It’s also just below the 61.8% fib retrace of the move from yesterday, being 7555. Of course, below that then the bears would be looking for 7500 again, and a break of that rebuffs this bullish advance with 7430 bottom of the 10d Raff below that.
The S&P500 defended the 3810 level well on Monday and a sharp move higher off that (with a bit of help from the Fed, etc) has seen the bulls recapture and hold the 3900 level. And now 4000 isn’t that far away again….. A rise initially to 3936 to double top with yesterday and test the key fib may well play out initially, with a drop down to then test the 3903 daily pivot level. Again, I would like to see any dip on this also defended for a rise towards the 3952 R1 level today.
We started shorting the rallies last week as you know. The sentiment is starting to change more towards buying the dip now we have had the flush out. We may well see the back end of March getting bullish.
So, eye on the budget today, and also a bit of 12:30 news out of the US – retail sales and PPI – with the former forecasted to have dropped to -0.3% from 3% previously. Less spending should of course reduce inflation too…..
Good luck today.
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