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FTSE100 live outlook prediction analysis for 16th March 2023
One of Europe’s biggest banks sparked global market turmoil on Wednesday amid fears it is on the brink of financial disaster. The Bank of England was holding emergency talks with international counterparts on Wednesday night after shares in Credit Suisse plunged as much as 30 per cent, spreading fear through the City of London that overshadowed Jeremy Hunt’s maiden Budget.
On Wednesday night the troubled bank announced it would take a loan worth up to £44 billion from the Swiss central bank. Growing fears of a new banking crisis have led financial experts to begin reassessing forecasts for economic growth, with some predicting that central banks will soon have to start cutting interest rates.
European and US equity futures advanced, Asian stocks pared losses and Treasuries fell Thursday after Credit Suisse Group AG said it would borrow money from Switzerland’s central bank and seek to repurchase debt. Contracts for the Euro Stoxx 50 index climbed more than 2% as the news from Credit Suisse provided a measure of calm for jittery investors. It has arranged to borrow as much as 50 billion francs ($54 billion) from a Swiss National Bank liquidity facility and will offer to buy back up to three billion francs of dollar- and euro-denominated debt.
Stay strapped in, the rollercoaster continues….. Latest news of the SNB helping out Credit Suisse has helped to arrest the falls for the time being but what will be the next domino to fall? The 7300 area got tested out of hours and was decent support, handily hitting that key level just as the “support” was announced. We have now had the bounce to the 7400 level and I am expecting a bit of a relief bounce today. Quite a good buying level at the 7300 level and I expect some of the institutions are piling in here too – handily before the end of the tax year in a couple of weeks.
Initially we may well see a drop down to the 7355 level to test the key fib support, and have a bit of a retrace of this out of hours bounce, and if that holds we may well see a bit of a climb from there. That may also coincide with a climb on the Dax40 and S&P500 as well.
If it does hold then we may well see a climb as far as the 7500 level, and possibly even a test of the R1 and 30m 200ema at the 7586 area. Obviously that will need a strong tailwind and some valiant bulls, no doubt needing to be helped by some decent good news.
Retail will of course be quite spooked and the media are doing a good job of hyping things, so expect them to be piling out at the moment…. just in time for the institutions that cashed in at 8050 to start buying again. End of Q1 pump to help cement those bonus levels!
Below 7350 then 7308 last nights low is next up, with 7239 S1 below that. I don’t think we will have another extremely down day like yesterday and will stabilise a bit today. The S&P500 actually has a green 30m coral for example to start with and support from that at the 3883 level (matching the daily pivot).
The 2h chart remains bearish after that fall yesterday as you would expect though we have the bottom of the Raff channels at the 7290 (20d) and 7250 (10d) levels for today. Any drop down to this area may well then see a bounce if it were to get there.
As per yesterday please stay nimble and be cautious, markets are always there and you dont have to trade every single move/day. Lots of novice traders can get quite burned when it’s zooming around.
Good luck today.
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