Bulls trying | 8208 8227 8250 resistance | 8165 8145 8118 support

Bulls trying | 8208 8227 8250 resistance | 8165 8145 8118 support

Technical analysis for FTSE 100 for 14th June 2024

British stocks closed lower on Thursday, tracking European market losses as investors digested the Federal Reserve's projection for fewer US rate cuts this year, while health and safety equipment maker Halma soared after its results beat estimates.

The blue-chip FTSE 100 closed 0.6% lower, a day after its best day in over a month. The mid-cap FTSE 250 dipped 1.5%, in its worst day in nearly two months.

Home construction and household goods slipped 2.8% as Crest Nicholson slumped 11.6% to the bottom of the FTE 250 after the homebuilder warned its annual profit would fall about one-third and posted an 88% slump in half-year earnings.

Utilities and personal care stocks were the only outliers with gains of 0.3% and 0.5%, respectively.

The pan-European STOXX 600 was down 1.3%, its worst day since mid-April.

Meanwhile, the Fed kept rates unchanged on Wednesday, plotting one cut in the year, and pushing out the start to perhaps as late as December. A report also showed U.S. producer prices unexpectedly fell in May, in another sign of subsiding inflation. Investors will now shift focus to the crucial domestic inflation report ahead of the Bank of England's next monetary policy meeting, both due in the next week.

Asia & Overnight
Japanese shares rose, outperforming weaker Asian markets, and the yen fell broadly after the Bank of Japan said it would start trimming its huge bond purchases in the future, dashing some bets that it would begin the process sooner.

Tokyo's Nikkei reversed course to trade 0.7% higher, while the yen slumped to a 1-1/2-month low of 157.98 per dollar, after Japan's central bank kick started its slow but steady retreat from its massive monetary stimulus.

Across Asia, stocks wavered, with MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was 0.16% lower. Chinese stocks were also down, with the blue chip stocks off 0.4%.

Investors are also pondering the outlook for U.S. rates after the Federal Reserve tempered its rate-cut views even as inflation came in softer than expected, with the dollar hovering near a one-month high on the back of the hawkish Fed.

Political uncertainty in Europe has kept the euro under pressure.

In commodities, oil prices eased on Friday but were on track for their first weekly gain in four weeks as markets assessed the impact of U.S. rates staying higher for longer against solid outlooks for crude and fuel demand this year. Brent crude futures fell 0.62% to $82.26 a barrel while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) U.S. crude futures eased 0.69% to trade at $78.08.

FTSE 100 technical analysis for today, 14th June 2024

The bulls are fighting back having tested the 8150 support area yesterday and we are just nudging the 8200 level to start with today. We have the resistance level from R1 at 8208 to start with, and 8197 for the 30m 200ema.

Just above this is the key fib at 8227 and and once again the daily 25ema at 8240. It feels like the bulls may well stage a bit of a fightback today ahead of the weekend, and a weekly close above the 8200 level.

If they were to break above the 8240 level, and bear in mind we also have R2 and the top of the 10d Raff channel at 8250, then the next level up at 8282 for R3 would be on their radar.

On the flip side, the bears will be looking to break below the 8165 level where we have the 30m coral and Hull MA support. The 30m coral is on the cusp of turning to support as we have broken above it overnight. The 2h chart is also just on the edge of turning bullish, and the bulls will certainly be trying hard to keep this overnight rise going.

Buying the dip again today looks to be the play.

Below 8165 and the key fib at 8118 might get a reaction, with the 8100 level below that - round number, S2 and daily support at 8090 all here. That said I don't think it will get that low and actually the bulls will be in charge today.

The main news event today will be the 15:00 consumer sentiment in the US with a forecasted uptick to 72 from 69.1 previously. We may see a bit of volatility around then.

The US markets continue to be buoyant, and the Dax40 may well fight back a bit today after its few bearish sessions. The Dax bulls will need to break above 18400 which is 2h resistance from the Hull MA.

Good luck today and have a great weekend.

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